Post by mick on May 1, 2016 11:47:20 GMT -5
Well, Kentucky Derby week has begun and hordes of experts, assumed experts and amateur bloggers are beginning to offer their thoughts on the $2 million Kentucky Derby. By the way, television coverage of "Derby Day" begins at 11:30 a.m. on NBC Sports Network and moves over to NBC Network at 4 p.m. The actual post time of the Derby is 6:24 p.m.
So, here are BONA VENTURE STABLES early thoughts on this year's running. I'll update our thinking Friday of this week. A lot of factors can impact our final choices: post position is critical in the Kentucky Derby with a large field of 20 runners and a half-dozen of them stuck in the auxiliary gate, far out from the rail and the sharp first-turn; the weather, especially if it is raining and the track is muddy; and how the horses have been training up until Saturday morning.
Okay, let's take a look at the runners. There has been a lot of buzz on the Churchill Downs backside this past week over a couple wise guy horses: Majesto and Suddenbreakingnews. Both have demonstrated major closing ability in their last races and improving performances. But for Majesto, he'll have to make another major leap in performance to finish in the money on Saturday. I don't think he's good enough at this point. But Suddenbreakingnews, this might be different. In his last race, he was 10 lengths out of it with a half-mile to run and he exploded passing runner after runner, but ran out of real estate. This race is 220 yards longer than his last. Pay attention.
Well the real question is can Nyquist make it 8 straight and win the Derby wire-to-wire? This isn't usually a good prescription for winning this race. However, he's also shown an ability to stalk just off the pacesetter and run strongly in the stretch. I think his chances of winning depend on if there is an early speed duel and the pace falls apart, leaving the closers to pick up the pieces. I think we'll see this as Outwork, Danzing Candy and even Mohaymen will challenge for the early lead. Nyquist will go with them and we'll see strong early fractions. This sets it up for the closers, as long as they avoid getting stuck in traffic and can navigate the 'gassed' early runners as they fade in the stretch.
So, who closes for the win? I don't see the winner coming from way, way off the pace. So, I'm leaning toward Gun Runner or Brody's Cause. Gun Runner should be only three, maybe four lengths of the lead. As long as he avoids getting stuck in traffic, he has the running style to make a bold move in the stretch and pull a mild upset. I loved Brody's Cause race in the Blue Grass Stakes. He sat off the early pace, moved into contention with a half-mile remaining, gained the lead early in the stretch and moved off to an easy 2 length win. Next is Exaggerator. He's been very green in his latest runs, so it all depends on if he's Exaggerator 10 lengths off the early lead, or Exaggerator of a couple races ago as he stalked the pace and took over the lead in the stretch, pulling away. Early betting: Gun Runner or Brody's Cause to win and trifecta box with Gun Runner, Brody's Cause, Exaggerator, Suddenbreakingnews, Nyquist. I'll update on Friday.
Look for BONA VENTURE STABLES' strong 2 year-old debut runners later this summer at Saratoga: Bushmill's Legend; Alley Oop; Majestic Bonnie and our new 3 year-olds Cafe Y' Blanco and Thawed Out. There has to be a Derby runner for next year in this list! Other runners are River of Dreams, Hashtag Bonnie, Leaveematthegate, Play Unified, Nicholson and Princessofthieves.
So, here are BONA VENTURE STABLES early thoughts on this year's running. I'll update our thinking Friday of this week. A lot of factors can impact our final choices: post position is critical in the Kentucky Derby with a large field of 20 runners and a half-dozen of them stuck in the auxiliary gate, far out from the rail and the sharp first-turn; the weather, especially if it is raining and the track is muddy; and how the horses have been training up until Saturday morning.
Okay, let's take a look at the runners. There has been a lot of buzz on the Churchill Downs backside this past week over a couple wise guy horses: Majesto and Suddenbreakingnews. Both have demonstrated major closing ability in their last races and improving performances. But for Majesto, he'll have to make another major leap in performance to finish in the money on Saturday. I don't think he's good enough at this point. But Suddenbreakingnews, this might be different. In his last race, he was 10 lengths out of it with a half-mile to run and he exploded passing runner after runner, but ran out of real estate. This race is 220 yards longer than his last. Pay attention.
Well the real question is can Nyquist make it 8 straight and win the Derby wire-to-wire? This isn't usually a good prescription for winning this race. However, he's also shown an ability to stalk just off the pacesetter and run strongly in the stretch. I think his chances of winning depend on if there is an early speed duel and the pace falls apart, leaving the closers to pick up the pieces. I think we'll see this as Outwork, Danzing Candy and even Mohaymen will challenge for the early lead. Nyquist will go with them and we'll see strong early fractions. This sets it up for the closers, as long as they avoid getting stuck in traffic and can navigate the 'gassed' early runners as they fade in the stretch.
So, who closes for the win? I don't see the winner coming from way, way off the pace. So, I'm leaning toward Gun Runner or Brody's Cause. Gun Runner should be only three, maybe four lengths of the lead. As long as he avoids getting stuck in traffic, he has the running style to make a bold move in the stretch and pull a mild upset. I loved Brody's Cause race in the Blue Grass Stakes. He sat off the early pace, moved into contention with a half-mile remaining, gained the lead early in the stretch and moved off to an easy 2 length win. Next is Exaggerator. He's been very green in his latest runs, so it all depends on if he's Exaggerator 10 lengths off the early lead, or Exaggerator of a couple races ago as he stalked the pace and took over the lead in the stretch, pulling away. Early betting: Gun Runner or Brody's Cause to win and trifecta box with Gun Runner, Brody's Cause, Exaggerator, Suddenbreakingnews, Nyquist. I'll update on Friday.
Look for BONA VENTURE STABLES' strong 2 year-old debut runners later this summer at Saratoga: Bushmill's Legend; Alley Oop; Majestic Bonnie and our new 3 year-olds Cafe Y' Blanco and Thawed Out. There has to be a Derby runner for next year in this list! Other runners are River of Dreams, Hashtag Bonnie, Leaveematthegate, Play Unified, Nicholson and Princessofthieves.