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Post by sbu79 on Nov 11, 2008 13:47:29 GMT -5
It's been a long time since I underestimated our wins. Back to a Baron year, I think. I'm going to predict 10 wins and hope I break my trend.
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Post by Chuck on Nov 11, 2008 13:54:28 GMT -5
Bonnies won 8 games last year. They are clearly improved, but they have a lot of new players. 4 of the 5 top scorers are gone and our leading returning scorer is D'Lancy Carter. Looking at the schedule I predict the Bonnies will win 10-12 games. Here is a breakdown of the schedule:
6 likely OOC wins with last year's (RPI) (112) Marist - projected last in the MAAC (317) Canisius - projected 8th in MAAC (331) Princeton - projected last in the Ivy (338) Maryland Eastern Shore - projected last in the Mid Eastern (316) St. Francis (Pa) projected last in the NEC (280) Central Arkansas - projected last in Southland
1 probable win but close game (204) Bucknell - projected 6th in Patriot. 3 returning starters with a new coach. Last year Bonnies beat them in a close home game (won by 3 points).
4 difficult games, which are probable losses (132) Robert Morris - projected 3rd in NEC. 3 returning starters, which includes return of leading scorer. Certainly helps with it being a home game. (182) Delaware - projected 5th in CAA. 4 returning starters. (236) Eastern Michigan - projected 2nd in MAC's West. Top 2 leading scorers and return of MAC's freshman of the year, who missed last year because of injury. As a freshman he averaged over 8 ppg and was team's leading rebounder. (115) Niagara - projected 4th in MAAC. 3 returning starters and 2 transfers from the Big East. Stand a chance with this being a home game.
2 very difficult games. These are the Syracuse and W. Virgina's of recent seasons, except this year we get 2 high profile teams instead of one: (209) Rutgers projected 12th in the Big East. All 5 starters return. (35) Mississippi St. - projected 4th in SEC's west. 2 returning starters.
4 wins in conference games (129) Duquense - James and Mensah declared for NBA draft and neither was selected. 2 starters return and both were borderline starters. Fingers crossed for 2 wins against Duquense. (172) Fordham - 1 returning borderline starter. Should be 2 wins for the Bonnies.
We should be thankful Schmidt is coaching the Bonnies and Matt Brady was not interested. Brady was a great X's and O's coach, but he could not recruit. Marist has one starter returning and little else. Team is depleted of talent and are predicted to finish last in the MAAC. Brady left the mess he created and will be coaching his first year at Jame Madison.
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therc
Junior Member
Posts: 390
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Post by therc on Nov 11, 2008 14:59:32 GMT -5
To expand on my 13-16 prediction earlier.
ROBERT MORRIS - W at Marist - W vs. Delaware - W at Rutgers - L MISSISSIPPI STATE - L vs. Canisius (HSBC) - W PRINCETON - W MARYLAND EAST. SHORE - W ST. FRANCIS (Pa.) - W at Eastern Michigan - W NIAGARA - L at Bucknell - L at Central Arkansas - W at Fordham - L DUQUESNE - W SAINT JOESEPH'S - L at Richmond - L XAVIER - L at Dayton - L FORDHAM - W at Duquesne - W LA SALLE - W at Rhode Island - L MASSACHUSETTS - L at George Washington - L at Temple - L SAINT LOUIS - L at Saint Josephs - L CHARLOTTE - L
Final Record: 13-16 A-10: 4-12
This is my most conservative estimate. I really think we have the CHANCE to get to 15 wins this year, if we can sneak a couple of A-10 wins at home. It's just so tough to win on the road in our league.
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Post by Cassian on Nov 11, 2008 16:59:15 GMT -5
Losing your top four scorers on an 8 win team is not a big loss, sorry. Replacing them with studs, even young studs is much preferable. With that said, and with a relatively easy OOC, this team can win 13 games and if it improves throughout the year could win up to 15. What we have seen in the past, and is the big question mark here, is when is a Bonnie team actually going to get better as the year goes on - this could be the year.
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Post by maplehurst on Nov 11, 2008 18:14:46 GMT -5
Bonnies biggest problem in recent years has been a lack of reliable shooters. Until I see that this team can shoot, I will predict 7 wins (Delaware, Canisius, Princeton, Maryland ES, St Francis, Fordham (home), and Duquesne (home). Go Bonnies, prove me way wrong!
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Post by francisthejrt on Nov 11, 2008 19:17:46 GMT -5
14 wins, including @ Rutgers
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Post by tomgleason on Nov 11, 2008 22:08:42 GMT -5
ok kids, how about some unfounded optimism here.....25 wins, an A-10 championship and an Elite 8 appearance.
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Post by LumsdnA10Academc98 on Nov 11, 2008 23:10:27 GMT -5
With that said, and with a relatively easy OOC, this team can win 13 games and if it improves throughout the year could win up to 15. What we have seen in the past, and is the big question mark here, is when is a Bonnie team actually going to get better as the year goes on - this could be the year. When's the last time a Bona team didn't get worse throughout the year? Was it 2001? That's almost a decade ago! Now that Schmidt has the horses, I see this team gelling come February. I'm not going to go on record as forecasting any record, but I will say that, A-10 tourney or not, this team will not lose 20 games. That's for sure. If we improve and stay healthy as a roster full of talented, athletic newcomers comes together, almost nothing is out of the question. The almost undeniable optimism surrounding this program should be a sign of good things to come. Season starts Friday.
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Post by bonaballa1 on Nov 11, 2008 23:51:23 GMT -5
an A-10 tournament birth. is that too much to ask?
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Post by njbona02 on Nov 12, 2008 7:49:35 GMT -5
i do not have to tell anyone on this board that the team has alot of unknowns. Whenever we have 8 new comers there will always be some questions but as this season unfolds I think the freshman will get better and stronger and the juco guys will mes together with these young guys and form a strong unit. I feel that all of these guys want to be part of the resurgence of Bona basketball. When its all said and done I see 13-14 wins and a birth in th A-10 tourney. See you all in AC.
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Post by bakinour on Nov 12, 2008 9:20:01 GMT -5
a berth in the a-10 tourney would be nice too
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Post by clubhouse on Nov 12, 2008 10:06:38 GMT -5
11 wins.
Team struggles early against a few weak non-conference foes. Negativity runs rampant after a few bad losses mount. Then the team comes together and turns it around during conference play and sneaks in the A-10 tournament.
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Post by mangham on Nov 12, 2008 11:35:58 GMT -5
11 wins. Team struggles early against a few weak non-conference foes. Negativity runs rampant after a few bad losses mount. Then the team comes together and turns it around during conference play and sneaks in the A-10 tournament. I really feel that if we use our athleticism against these weak OOC teams we will beat them. In the past we were forced to play a half court game due to our lack of depth. I hope that we are all over these teams, the way we were against Mansfield in the first half.
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Post by fjs64 on Mar 7, 2009 22:00:21 GMT -5
This thread goes back to November and contains the predictions of some of the posters.....congratulations to tomangelone for picking a 15-14 record.....I'll also pat myself on the back for also picking 15-14 (9-4 OOC and 6-10 in the A10). I usually am never close, always too optimistic. Hey Mangham, you were close too.
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Post by Bona84 on Mar 8, 2009 10:26:16 GMT -5
fjs64 - thanks for reintroducing this thread. And, congrats to you and tomangelone on nailing the prediction.
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