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Post by LumsdnA10Academc98 on Jan 28, 2009 12:51:16 GMT -5
Our final 10 games:
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01/28/09 vs. Fordham * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
01/31/09 at Duquesne * Pittsburgh, Pa. 7:00 p.m.
02/07/09 vs. La Salle * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
02/11/09 at Rhode Island * Kingston, R.I. 7:00 p.m.
02/14/09 vs. Massachusetts * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
02/19/09 at George Washington * Washington, D.C. 9:00 p.m.
02/22/09 at Temple * Philadelphia, Pa. 2:00 p.m.
02/25/09 vs. Saint Louis * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
03/01/09 at Saint Joseph's * Philadelphia, Pa. 2:00 p.m.
03/07/09 vs. Charlotte * Reilly Center 4:00 p.m.
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How I see things playing out:
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W - 01/28/09 vs. Fordham * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
L - 01/31/09 at Duquesne * Pittsburgh, Pa. 7:00 p.m.
W - 02/07/09 vs. La Salle * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
L - 02/11/09 at Rhode Island * Kingston, R.I. 7:00 p.m.
L - 02/14/09 vs. Massachusetts * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
W - 02/19/09 at George Washington * Washington, D.C. 9:00 p.m.
L - 02/22/09 at Temple * Philadelphia, Pa. 2:00 p.m.
W -02/25/09 vs. Saint Louis * Reilly Center 7:00 p.m.
L - 03/01/09 at Saint Joseph's * Philadelphia, Pa. 2:00 p.m.
W - 03/07/09 vs. Charlotte * Reilly Center 4:00 p.m.
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With the toughest part of the schedule comfortably in the rear view mirror and only 10 regular season games left, it's safe to look at what we need to do to get to where we want to be, which is at least a .500 record at season's end. All five home games are winnable, and the most winnable road game is at GW. As others have said, there's probably no way we finish better than 6-4, but I also think we'll manage no worse than 4-6.
If we finish 4-6 and go one & done in AC, we'll end up at 15-15, which I would have taken in a heartbeat coming into the season. On the other hand, if we split two games in Atlantic City, the absolute best case scenario has us at 18-13. Finsh .500 down the stretch and win one of two in AC, which, by the way, is no foregone conclusion, and we're 17-14.
Where would 17-14 get us? (Teams last year made the CBI with all sorts of records, from 13-18 to 22-9.) What are our chances of getting to 17-14? What about 16-14? I honestly think we'll end up no worse than .500, but one must admit that an above-.500 record is very much a possibility -- an exciting one at that.
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Post by homersbu on Jan 28, 2009 13:09:42 GMT -5
Love the optimism, but I'm just not sure you can be comfortable projecting 5 more wins for a team that has been BLOWN OUT at home its last four games (Niagara, Dukes, Joe's, Xavier). The Blackburn loss and lack of depth at point guard can't be overlooked. Not sure you can have a "Can we get above .500 conversation?" until after the La Salle game. If tonight's game doesn't scare you a little, you haven't seen the last four home games. The 10.5-point line for tonight just astonishes me. I think they should win, but a 10.5-point line suggests they will absolutely win. Not a given. No way. Fordham lost AT Dayton with 3 seconds to go.
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Post by LumsdnA10Academc98 on Jan 28, 2009 13:18:37 GMT -5
Love the optimism, but I'm just not sure you can be comfortable projecting 5 more wins for a team that has been BLOWN OUT at home its last four games (Niagara, Dukes, Joe's, Xavier). What if the four teams that blew us out at home are all considerably better than the four teams I have us beating at home? |
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Post by adolphlottin on Jan 28, 2009 13:29:01 GMT -5
Based on what we've seen, I think three more regular season victories is the most realistic outlook you can have.
GW is solid at home, and beating Saint Louis, one of the best defensive teams in the country, is no small task. I agree with wins over Fordham, La Salle and Charlotte.
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Post by LumsdnA10Academc98 on Jan 28, 2009 14:03:09 GMT -5
The Bonnies are solid on the road (7-1). ...beating Saint Louis, one of the best defensive teams in the country, is no small task. The Billikens are winless on the road (0-5). |
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Post by triple302 on Jan 28, 2009 14:44:40 GMT -5
I'd like to think we have a pretty good shot at UMass at home(not just because I am going to theat game). UMass is a very tough team to figure and are very capable of coming in and just laying an egg.
I am not ready to say GW is a win, because they have had some solid showings, granted all losses, but they have been very competitive. Have to believe we will beat SLU at home.
I am going to put my guess at us finishing with 16 wins before AC with us maybe grabbing a win against an average team in the first round, then getting beat by a good team.
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Post by hamrucker on Jan 28, 2009 14:52:16 GMT -5
I agree with Lumbsdn's outlook for the most part. The only thing I might see differently is possibly Lasalle being a win, and I also agree with triple and think we may be able to knock off UMass at home. I think five more wins is a very realistic outlook. GW is 0-5 in the league, and I don't know how tough that can make them at home. Charlotte has a lot of problems offensively and there is no reason for us to not beat St. Louis in the RC. First things first, though, and that's taking care of business tonight.
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therc
Junior Member
Posts: 390
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Post by therc on Jan 28, 2009 15:02:51 GMT -5
The Bonnies are solid on the road (7-1). ...beating Saint Louis, one of the best defensive teams in the country, is no small task. The Billikens are winless on the road (0-5). Yeah but does that really matter when the game starts? In fact, you just contridicted your own argument right there. Earlier, you say that we will win four out of our last five home games because the "the four teams that blew us out at home are all considerably better than the four teams I have us beating at home."Then you say we are solid on the road. I actually agree with your assessment there, but let's take a look at who we've beaten on the road: at Marist at Rutgers at Eastern Michigan at Bucknell at Central Arkansas at Fordham at Richmond Out of these seven teams, only TWO of them have more talent than GW. That's Rutgers and Richmond. Eveyone else is way worse. I don't think the fact that we're 7-1 on the road gives us a higher leg up on GW in Washington ... I think that having better talent and playing better basketball gives us that advantage. That said, it will be a tough game. Also, in regards to the Billikens, you're correct in saying that they're 0-5 in true road contests. But, let's dig a little deeper again. Their five road losses are: at Nebraska at Detroit Mercy at Southern Illinois at Xavier at Temple Out of these five teams, there is only ONE that I would say is worse than SBU, which is Detroit Mercy. The other four are much, much better than we are. So just because they're 0-5 on the road doesn't make it any easier for us to beat them at home. Now I'm not saying that we won't go 5-5 in our last 10 games. I hope we do. In fact, I hope we do better than that. It is a possibility. But shooting other people down because they question your logic isn't a smart thing to do unless your logic actually works. And here, it doesn't..... |
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Post by njbona02 on Jan 28, 2009 15:05:46 GMT -5
Yes UMass at home. I will be there too. Townhouse 333 Class of 02 reunion weekend. Filthy partying with a win against the minutemen.
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Post by West End Stench on Jan 28, 2009 15:16:20 GMT -5
Good thread, this should spark alot of debate. Finishing out the season at 5-5 is not too far of a reach, but I just don't think our Bonnies are that mentally tough to beat ALL the teams that we should in the tail-end of the season.
I would really prefer to wait until after tonight to make predictions, but for the sake of the thread's title, I'll just do it now. I see us getting 4 more wins before A.C., but won't be disappointed if we only get 3. I agree with Lumsdon for the most part, but I'm torn between St. Louis and Charlotte.
As far as the Conference Tournament goes, does anybody else feel like tonight's game is absolutely huge? A Bona win and a GW loss tonight puts us 3 games ahead of the bottom two spots in the conference. Our Bonnies have a great opportunity to control their destiny tonight.
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therc
Junior Member
Posts: 390
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Post by therc on Jan 28, 2009 15:20:33 GMT -5
As far as the Conference Tournament goes, does anybody else feel like tonight's game is absolutely huge? A Bona win and a GW loss tonight puts us 3 games ahead of the bottom two spots in the conference. Our Bonnies have a great opportunity to control their destiny tonight. Tonight's game is indeed huge ... but I really think the big one in the last 10 will be the last one, and that's at home against Charlotte. There's a very real possibility that we could be neck and neck with them in the standings at that point, whether it be 12th or 10th or - hopefully - better, I just have a feeling that we'll be right with the 49ers in the end. |
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Post by Bona84 on Jan 28, 2009 15:44:28 GMT -5
All of the scenarios in this thread are possible. But, the real important thing right now, is that the students should be putting their coats on right about now and heading to the Burton to get ready for the game. (Or the Skellar, if it is open)
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Post by njbona02 on Jan 28, 2009 15:59:45 GMT -5
Exactly. They should be getting lubricated for the cold weather and then nice and loud. This is a huge game. We need to win the games we are supposed to and then look for an upset or 2. This is a game we should win. Good teams win these games. If we win here and then get angry about the way Duquesne handled us at Bonaventure maybe we spark an upset. Lets get going and get on a roll. Ten we can start thinking about 15-16 wins.
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Post by maplehurst on Jan 28, 2009 16:14:21 GMT -5
I think that there is a better chance to beat UMass than GW. Bonas has not won at GW since 1988.
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Post by portpasses on Jan 28, 2009 16:17:49 GMT -5
Tonight's game is indeed huge ... but I really think the big one in the last 10 will be the last one, and that's at home against Charlotte. There's a very real possibility that we could be neck and neck with them in the standings at that point, whether it be 12th or 10th or - hopefully - better, I just have a feeling that we'll be right with the 49ers in the end. . There is obviously a long way to go, but I could see Charlotte quitting on Lutz by the last game of the season. From the A10 board, most of the fans already have. |
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