Post by mick on May 2, 2024 14:39:24 GMT -5
The annual running of the Kentucky Derby, first jewel in the Triple Crown series, celebrates its 150th running this Saturday, May 4 at the iconic Churchill Downs.
The race brings victory dreams for hundreds of individual and group owners not only the $5 million purse (winners share about $2.8 million) but untold $$$$ from future breeding rights, nervous anticipation for 20 trainers and jockeys and trepidation for executives from Churchill Downs, NBC television and the thoroughbred racing industry driven by the horrific break downs last year.
For most of us it brings a day of mint juleps, a beer or two, a few dollar wagers and a fun afternoon watching eight major stakes races highlight the joyful start of a long summer and fall racing season culminating in early November with the two day Breeders' Cup Championship series. In between there is the Preakness Stakes in mid-May, the relocated June Belmont Stakes to historic Saratoga Springs and the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in late August.
Before I move into my thoughts on this year's Derby, here are a couple things to consider while handicapping the race.
The best 3 year-old in the country is not racing Saturday. Muth, the son of Good Magic, trained by Bob Baffert, is not running. Baffert currently is banned from participating in the Kentucky Derby (for the third year) due to past horse drug violations. Muth, a $2 million purchase as a 2 year-old, is already a three time stakes winner who would have been the strong win favorite. Look for him in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
Another tidbit is only one horse costing more than $1 million has ever won the Kentucky Derby, this being Fusaichi Pegasus ($4 million.) Currently there are two heavy favorites for Saturday's race Sierra Leone sold for $2.3 million at the 2022 Saratoga yearling sales is at 3-1 odds while co-favorite Fierceness is a home bred by Mike Repole for a bargain basement price of $35,000. Something to think about.
Who wins the Derby?
Every year a 20 horse field quickly can be whittled down to a half a dozen legitimate contenders.
I see a five horse race.
#2 - Sierra Leone. He's done everything right, improving each race. His ability to close regardless of slow or fast pace makes him legitimate. But it is one thing to swing wide with a stretch move in a field of 7 or 8 but very different with a dozen or more horses in front of him with a quarter mile to go. The combination of breaking inside and navigating a large field makes him suspect.
#11 - Forever Young (Japan). No foreign bred runner has ever won the Derby, is this the year? This horse is undefeated with five wins across Korea, Japan and United Arab Republic. He's battle tested in large fields and proven at distances. The 11 post may allow him to avoid the crushing traffic around the first turn, staying out in the four or five lane away from the inevitable traffic jam and see him steadily close, drawing away from the fading stretch runners.
#17 - Fierceness. At 5/2 he's the early favorite and probable post time pick. There is no value in this bet but a big question if he can win from this far outside. The positives: he's one of two entrants with Beyer speed figures in the 100s - at 110. Versatility, he can win wire-to-wire or be content to follow the leaders and put them away in the final furlongs. He was impressive as a 2 year-old dominating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Championships. Not so positives: He's never faced a speed dominated field as this Derby so can he survive an early run faster than he's seen before. The last time he competed in a half mile time of 45 seconds he finished 7th, 20 lengths behind.
#18 - Stronghold. He'll be overlooked and dismissed. This will be a mistake. Early odds are 20-1. He's been in the exacta in all six races and won two stakes races getting to the Derby. He needs early patience, and hope for a meltdown while picking up the pieces. His rider is untested so Derby fever is a concern. A patient ride keeps him out of trouble and avoids 'rush hour' in the stretch for a major payoff.
#19 - Resilience. His best win was his last, a convincing 2 1/2 length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. It's been a long time since the winner of the Wood was a Derby contender. Why not this one? Distance won't be an issue. He is improving each race so another step forward could lead to a big, big win.
I've never thought horses stuck outside in the auxiliary gate were smart wagers in a race this size, so it is a big step for me to say otherwise this year.
Who remains?
#4 - Catching Freedom. A legitimate option. He was impressive with a 97 Beyer in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby driving past the field to win by a length. He looked like he could keep going so the stretch to 1 1/4 miles may be perfect for him.
#6 - Just Steel. I love his regal breeding and he did cost $500,000. There is talent but he may show his best later this season, not this Saturday. He will be challenged for the early lead but best early speed figure of 185.
#1 - Dornoch. If he wasn't in the inside 1 post, He'd be a contender. The dilemma for him is to burst out of the gate, rush to an early lead and try to clear the field before the first turn. This takes a lot out of a horse and typically they don't last. He needs the lead to win. Doubt this happens Saturday.
#3 - Mystic Dan. The second runner with a 100 Beyer but it came on a muddy track. His mystic qualities wait for another day and another race.
#5 - Catalytic. He won't fire here.
#7 - Honor Marie. An odd name for a male horse, he could come late and pick up pieces at the end but not win.
#8 - Just a Touch. He'll need more than a touch to emerge the winner.
#9 - Encino. Scratched out of the race.
#10 - T O Password (Japan). Sure somebody's got to run. He should have avoided the coach flight over the Pacific. He'll go home without the gold.
#12 - Track Phantom. He'll draw interest and money. He won't win. He's been in the money in all 7 starts but he runs wire-to-wire. Very hard to do in this size field and talent.
#13 - West Saratoga. I had a home on the west side, now live on the east side. Enough said.
#14 - Endlessly. It could be a disappointing afternoon that the owners can't wait for it to end.
#15- Domestic Product. The import from Japan creates a trade deficit for this guy.
#16 - Grand Mo the First. Somebody had to fill out the field. This won't be his day.
#20 - Society Man. Saratoga is known for its summer society galas. There isn't one planned for Saturday.
#21 - Epic Ride. Drew in with the early scratch. There have been epic rides and epic wins in past Derby's. Don't see it happening this year.
Enough! So who wins the Derby?
Time to make a prediction. If Fierceness avoids early traffic congestion and finds a way to tuck in before the first turn, he's my choice. Otherwise I'm bucking history and the oddsmakers with Forever Young, the Japanese invader.
Sierra Leone may be the best horse in the race, but I see the 2 post as a massive barrier.
I'll back up my wins with $20 across the board on #11 and #17.
Ten cent superfecta box: 2, 11, 17,18, 19. A second superfecta 11,17 over 2,4,6,11,17,18,19 over 2,4,6,11,17,18,19.
$1 trifecta: 2,11,17,18 over 2,11,17,18,19. Maybe a final tri: 2,11,17 over 2,11,17,18 over 2, 4,11,17 over 2,4,11,17,18,19.
Good luck everyone.
The race brings victory dreams for hundreds of individual and group owners not only the $5 million purse (winners share about $2.8 million) but untold $$$$ from future breeding rights, nervous anticipation for 20 trainers and jockeys and trepidation for executives from Churchill Downs, NBC television and the thoroughbred racing industry driven by the horrific break downs last year.
For most of us it brings a day of mint juleps, a beer or two, a few dollar wagers and a fun afternoon watching eight major stakes races highlight the joyful start of a long summer and fall racing season culminating in early November with the two day Breeders' Cup Championship series. In between there is the Preakness Stakes in mid-May, the relocated June Belmont Stakes to historic Saratoga Springs and the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in late August.
Before I move into my thoughts on this year's Derby, here are a couple things to consider while handicapping the race.
The best 3 year-old in the country is not racing Saturday. Muth, the son of Good Magic, trained by Bob Baffert, is not running. Baffert currently is banned from participating in the Kentucky Derby (for the third year) due to past horse drug violations. Muth, a $2 million purchase as a 2 year-old, is already a three time stakes winner who would have been the strong win favorite. Look for him in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
Another tidbit is only one horse costing more than $1 million has ever won the Kentucky Derby, this being Fusaichi Pegasus ($4 million.) Currently there are two heavy favorites for Saturday's race Sierra Leone sold for $2.3 million at the 2022 Saratoga yearling sales is at 3-1 odds while co-favorite Fierceness is a home bred by Mike Repole for a bargain basement price of $35,000. Something to think about.
Who wins the Derby?
Every year a 20 horse field quickly can be whittled down to a half a dozen legitimate contenders.
I see a five horse race.
#2 - Sierra Leone. He's done everything right, improving each race. His ability to close regardless of slow or fast pace makes him legitimate. But it is one thing to swing wide with a stretch move in a field of 7 or 8 but very different with a dozen or more horses in front of him with a quarter mile to go. The combination of breaking inside and navigating a large field makes him suspect.
#11 - Forever Young (Japan). No foreign bred runner has ever won the Derby, is this the year? This horse is undefeated with five wins across Korea, Japan and United Arab Republic. He's battle tested in large fields and proven at distances. The 11 post may allow him to avoid the crushing traffic around the first turn, staying out in the four or five lane away from the inevitable traffic jam and see him steadily close, drawing away from the fading stretch runners.
#17 - Fierceness. At 5/2 he's the early favorite and probable post time pick. There is no value in this bet but a big question if he can win from this far outside. The positives: he's one of two entrants with Beyer speed figures in the 100s - at 110. Versatility, he can win wire-to-wire or be content to follow the leaders and put them away in the final furlongs. He was impressive as a 2 year-old dominating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Championships. Not so positives: He's never faced a speed dominated field as this Derby so can he survive an early run faster than he's seen before. The last time he competed in a half mile time of 45 seconds he finished 7th, 20 lengths behind.
#18 - Stronghold. He'll be overlooked and dismissed. This will be a mistake. Early odds are 20-1. He's been in the exacta in all six races and won two stakes races getting to the Derby. He needs early patience, and hope for a meltdown while picking up the pieces. His rider is untested so Derby fever is a concern. A patient ride keeps him out of trouble and avoids 'rush hour' in the stretch for a major payoff.
#19 - Resilience. His best win was his last, a convincing 2 1/2 length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. It's been a long time since the winner of the Wood was a Derby contender. Why not this one? Distance won't be an issue. He is improving each race so another step forward could lead to a big, big win.
I've never thought horses stuck outside in the auxiliary gate were smart wagers in a race this size, so it is a big step for me to say otherwise this year.
Who remains?
#4 - Catching Freedom. A legitimate option. He was impressive with a 97 Beyer in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby driving past the field to win by a length. He looked like he could keep going so the stretch to 1 1/4 miles may be perfect for him.
#6 - Just Steel. I love his regal breeding and he did cost $500,000. There is talent but he may show his best later this season, not this Saturday. He will be challenged for the early lead but best early speed figure of 185.
#1 - Dornoch. If he wasn't in the inside 1 post, He'd be a contender. The dilemma for him is to burst out of the gate, rush to an early lead and try to clear the field before the first turn. This takes a lot out of a horse and typically they don't last. He needs the lead to win. Doubt this happens Saturday.
#3 - Mystic Dan. The second runner with a 100 Beyer but it came on a muddy track. His mystic qualities wait for another day and another race.
#5 - Catalytic. He won't fire here.
#7 - Honor Marie. An odd name for a male horse, he could come late and pick up pieces at the end but not win.
#8 - Just a Touch. He'll need more than a touch to emerge the winner.
#9 - Encino. Scratched out of the race.
#10 - T O Password (Japan). Sure somebody's got to run. He should have avoided the coach flight over the Pacific. He'll go home without the gold.
#12 - Track Phantom. He'll draw interest and money. He won't win. He's been in the money in all 7 starts but he runs wire-to-wire. Very hard to do in this size field and talent.
#13 - West Saratoga. I had a home on the west side, now live on the east side. Enough said.
#14 - Endlessly. It could be a disappointing afternoon that the owners can't wait for it to end.
#15- Domestic Product. The import from Japan creates a trade deficit for this guy.
#16 - Grand Mo the First. Somebody had to fill out the field. This won't be his day.
#20 - Society Man. Saratoga is known for its summer society galas. There isn't one planned for Saturday.
#21 - Epic Ride. Drew in with the early scratch. There have been epic rides and epic wins in past Derby's. Don't see it happening this year.
Enough! So who wins the Derby?
Time to make a prediction. If Fierceness avoids early traffic congestion and finds a way to tuck in before the first turn, he's my choice. Otherwise I'm bucking history and the oddsmakers with Forever Young, the Japanese invader.
Sierra Leone may be the best horse in the race, but I see the 2 post as a massive barrier.
I'll back up my wins with $20 across the board on #11 and #17.
Ten cent superfecta box: 2, 11, 17,18, 19. A second superfecta 11,17 over 2,4,6,11,17,18,19 over 2,4,6,11,17,18,19.
$1 trifecta: 2,11,17,18 over 2,11,17,18,19. Maybe a final tri: 2,11,17 over 2,11,17,18 over 2, 4,11,17 over 2,4,11,17,18,19.
Good luck everyone.
