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Post by njbonnie08 on Oct 29, 2014 9:22:14 GMT -5
A look and analysis at KenPom's projections of the Bonnies this season....I'm guessing most people on this board wouldn't sign up for this win total today.... thebonablog.wordpress.com/ |
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Post by wadeinthewater on Oct 29, 2014 10:01:23 GMT -5
Didn't the A 10 go to an 18 game schedule this year?
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Post by class70 on Oct 29, 2014 10:07:09 GMT -5
I like but don't subscribe to Kenpom, so I may be in error in this. I don't believe you can get to his season's projection for total wins by the bottoms-up method of adding up the wins he projects in individual games. I am just gleaning this from what someone posted on the A10 board saying he projects the Bonnies, URI, and Lasalle will go 8-10 in conference play. I would consider that a disappointing year, but it would be less depressing than 6-12.
Note: There will be 18 games played in regular season conference play and 11 OOC.
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Post by njbonnie08 on Oct 29, 2014 10:13:32 GMT -5
70,
It's odd. At the bottom of the schedule he has a projected win total of 15 games. It says "Projected Record", and he has 8 wins in conference play, at the bottom, BUT only has SBU winning 6 league games so it's confusing. So there is some confusion about how to interpret his stats/record.
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Post by gdub2009 on Oct 29, 2014 11:11:18 GMT -5
class70, you are correct in your assessment from Kenpom. He predicts us to win 8 games in the A10 but only shows 6 wins for individual games. The reason for the 8 is his overall probability of how many games we will win within the conference. Within the schedule he has us losing to Dayton at home by 1, Davidson by 2 on the road, Richmond by 1 at home. He also has us beating UMass by 1 at home and St.Joe's by 2 at home. So his 8 wins is more of a prediction overall, rather than a game by game basis. He probably figures we have 4 games at home predicted to be within 2 points and 1 game on the road predicted to be within 2 points. That works out to be 3-2 or 4-1 in those games, because 4 of them are at home.
I hope I kind of made sense there.
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Post by gdub2009 on Oct 29, 2014 11:26:58 GMT -5
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Post by wadeinthewater on Oct 29, 2014 11:29:19 GMT -5
I really hope we don't have that many 1 and 2 point games... my heart can't handle it!
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