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Post by jh on Oct 30, 2014 14:15:29 GMT -5
Mick - any picks this weekend???
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Post by maplehurst on Oct 30, 2014 16:50:02 GMT -5
For the Breeders' Cup Classic
Win #6 Shared Belief Place #10 Footbridge Show #14 Mystic Harbor
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mick
Junior Member
Posts: 261
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Post by mick on Oct 30, 2014 21:01:19 GMT -5
I'll post Saturday selections on Friday. For the first day of the BC (Friday, Oct. 31) here are some thoughts: There are four Breeders' Cup races on Friday, all are broadcast on NBC Sports Network.
BC Juvenile Turf - a very interesting race. Maybe the best of the day. This is a race the Europeans (turf breeding key) have a lot of success. So, I'm favoring these. I've a five horse trifecta and superfecta box: 1-9-11. That' Wet Sail (1), Aktabantay (9) and Imperia (11) over Commemorative (4) and War Envoy (7). These are $1 boxes.
I am going to make a leap and choose 9 - Aktabantay to win. European breeding by a top turf runners, Oasis Dream.
BC Dirt Mile - Take the favorite, Goldencents (1). He is a deserving favorite and the rest of the field isn't overwhelmingly appealing. Goldencents is consistent, has top speed and pace ratings and versatility. He can run on pace or drop inside and track and make a strong stretch move for a win.
So, Goldencents (1) and Pants on Fire (4) on top with Golden Ticket (6) and Tapiture (9). Both Pants on Fire and Tapiture will take a lot of money. They are credible runners. If you want to jump for a superfecta and backup maybe Big Bane Theory (10).
BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - this is my sentimental race, this is where Royal Bonnie made history as Bona Venture Stables first BC runner in 2011 and Summer of Fun rallied to finish 3rd in 2012. Okay, I don't like this field. I am not bowled over by these runners. Boy, I wish we had one of ours running this year!
So, Osalia (2) another European has already won three races and finished second in one. She's run six times as a 2 year-old and that is a lot! The breeding is very strong for the turf. If I was betting tonight, I'd bit Osalia to win. So, Osalia (2) and (4) Lady Eli on top, with Quality Rocks (10), Conquest Harlanate (11) and maybe Silovliere (6).
Finally, for Friday - BC Distaff - Okay, so Close Hatches (11) will be the post time favorite. I like the horse, but I'm trying to beat her. I'll take a shot with (7) Don't Tell Sophia. Be careful, my choice is a bit emotional, our top jockey Joe Rocco, Jr. is riding this horse. Joe is a master controlling pace and this race is 1 1/8 miles. I like Joe! So, Don't Tell sophia (7), Untapable (10) and Close Hatches (11) with (3) Iotapa and maybe (4) Belle Gallentey.
In all of these I'm do a $20 win on my top choice, $1 trifecta box of the top 4, sometimes 5, and the top 5 in $.10 supefecta boxes.
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mick
Junior Member
Posts: 261
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Post by mick on Oct 31, 2014 20:54:46 GMT -5
Well, two of four isn't too bad. Top choice of Aktabantay in the BCJT scratched so that ruined my first race choices. Close but no cigar with Joe Rocco, Jr. driving Don't tell Sophia in the BCJFT.
So What about Saturday?
Here we go --- BCJFillies - I'l go with 2/4/12 over 1/11 in a $1 trifecta. This isn't my favorite race as far as favorites go, but I put 4 - Conquest Eclipse as my $20 win bet. Our trainer Leah Gyarmati has the 10, Wonder Gal, in the race, but I think he's a step behind these runners. So, Conquest Eclipse, Angela Renee and By the Moon over Feathered and Top Decile.
BCMTurf - 3/4/5 over 6/8/10. A $1 trifecta and a $0.10 superfecta box. Box only the super. This is a tough, tough race. A defending champion Dank who's only run twice since. Hmmm. I'm taking the new European - 5, Secret Gesture to win with $20. He's by the top international turf star Galilleo. The race will be run very tactical and you want a proven closer, who has experience running in traffic. In the trip and super - 3 Dank, 4 Dayatthespa and 5 Secret Gesture on top of 6 Fiesolana, 8 Irish Mission and 10 Stephanie's Kitten.
BCFM Sprint - Wow, this is going to be a fast, fast race. Our trainer Leah Gyarmati's second BC runner - Sweet Reason is in this race and has a legitimate chance. But her speed ratings are a bit lower than the west coast runners. My selections: 3/5/6 over 1/9. I'll take $20 to win on the probable race time favorite - 5 Artemis Agrotera. She say a drop in her speed rating in the last race, but has been working lights out. I am betting she fully recovers and returns to previous form.
5 Artemis Agrotera, 3 Stonetastic and 6 Leigh Court over 1 Sweet Reason and 9 Living the Life. Watch out here, Leigh Court is the true speed and she could build up an easy lead if no one goes with her and they won't catch her. She needs to be challenged for the closers to close.
BCT Sprint - Another speed race that could surprise. I'm going with some long shots on this one. 1/13/14 over 5/10. $1 trifecta and $0.10 superfecta box. $20 win on 1 Reneesgotzip, but I could change this as the day goes on. 1 Reneesgotzip, 13 Caspar Nester and 14 No Nay Never. I have a hunch on No Nay Never so watch him closely preface. These three with 5 Ambitious Brew and 10 Home Run Kitten.
BCJ - 9/12 over 8/13 over4. Take 9 Carpe Diem. A deserving favorite, he defeated BVS' River of Dreams in their maiden races up at Saratoga. He is improving every race. 12 Daredevil has the best speed rating in the field. So, 9 Carpe Diem and 12 Daredevil over 8 Souper Colossal and 13 Upstart over 4 The Great War. Now The Great War is a sleeper in this race, likely worth an extra $5 long shot win ticket.
Racing is getting tougher and more interesting now. BCTurf - 1 Telescope, 7 Flintshire and 12 Main Sequence over 4 Brown Panther. That is my trifecta. As for a winner, In past years this race has been dominated by Europeans and there are some good one's this year, but I'll take Main Sequence for $20 to win.
BCSprint - 4/5/6 over 8/9. I'll take 4 Secret Circle. He's a 7 time sprint winner and finished in the top three in all 11 of his career races. This will be a very fast run, could to a half in .44 and the winner is likely to cross the wire in 1.07. Secret Circle can win on the lead or tuck in behind and stalk a length or two off the pace. I'l take a shot and call him the winner. 5 Private Zone is improving and he will be tough. The odd horse is 6 Rich Tapestry. A turf bred Euro, he broke 100 in his first dirt sprint last race out. He stalked the field and closed with authority. 8 Palace underneath with 9 Salutes Amigos. So my trifecta is 4/5/6 over 8/9 and I'll do the $0.10 superfecta and may add 7 Mico Margarita in the super for 3rd/4th.
BCM - could be the best race of the 9 BC on Saturday. I like 5 Toronado as the winner. He's out of High Chaparral a top European sire of turf champions. This race is a tactical run and the Euro do that best, wait, wait, wait, pounce, pass and drive to the wire. So, 1/5/10 obit 2/8. 1 Grand Arch will close with authority, 10 Summer Front is the top American opportunity. If he can stay close to the early pace, he could win. Underneath is 2 Obviously and 8 Trade Storm. $20 to win on 5 Toronado and a $1 trifecta with Tornado, Grand Arch and Summer Front over Obviously and Trade Storm.
Here it is, the BC Classic. Okay, I'll just say it - 7 Shared Belief will win this race. Alright, here is the escape clause - but it 7 Bayern runs as Bayern can run, he could win. So, 6 Shared Belief, 7 Bayern and 11 Tonalist on top of 2 Cigar Street (this is the spoiler, so watch and bet carefully), 8 Zivo and 9 Toast of New York. Shared Belief to win, $25. $20 on Tonalist to run arc - show. $1 tri Shared Belief, Bayern and Tonalist over Cigar Street, Zivo and Toast of New York. Same for the superfecta.
Good luck
Oh, at Aqueduct on Saturday, Bona Venture Stables runners Nicholson in the 6th race - It's a tough test for him, but he is training very well. Race 2nd last out in a photo at Saratoga. In the 7th is BVS' Court Dancer - she should win this race. Nicholson is named after? Guess! Duh! and Court Dancer - the 2012 Women's Sweet Sixteen team. Let's Go Bonnies!
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Post by jh on Nov 1, 2014 9:08:39 GMT -5
Mick - I will let you know your picks once again led us through the dark forest of wagering and resulted in us hitting the trifecta in 3 out of the 4 races Friday !!!! That is why The Mick will always be the Man !!!!
I owe you a pint
jh
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Post by res on Nov 2, 2014 8:20:57 GMT -5
Mick - I will let you know your picks once again led us through the dark forest of wagering and resulted in us hitting the trifecta in 3 out of the 4 races Friday !!!! That is why The Mick will always be the Man !!!! I owe you a pint jh You hit three trifectas and you'll pour him one pint?!!
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Post by wgt on Nov 2, 2014 17:13:57 GMT -5
res....Was also thinking at least several pints & good shepherd’s pies for Dan & his guests.
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