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Post by Hermit on Nov 1, 2014 1:50:57 GMT -5
Good job BD & Cassian, we need some of that around here - and I'm in 22W - just don't ask me for an analysis - other than that this is a gut feeling as I agree with the thought we will surprise or shock many who will not be able to deal with our athletes. Hermit - your last line is like saying you'll make your prediction after seeing how many games we win - (just yanking your chain .) Go Bonnies You are most certainly right! Well, in that case then.....my predictions should be right on the money!
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Post by Chuck on Nov 1, 2014 11:31:14 GMT -5
Point #1: Other programs have productive players graduate also. Point #2: Ndoye in my opinion needs to play like a Senior. He has made nice progress since landing in Olean. I look around the league and there is not a center on any team that I would swap YN for. Point #3: I appreciated Matt Wright but I believe we have an upgrade at that position. Matt was streaky but not consistent and not a great defender. Point #4: Dion Wright has obviously shown that he can be a solid starter and has picked up a couple endorsements from the national press. Again, 3rd year can be a leap for many at Bonas. Point #5 Most acknowledge that this roster is very deep. MS came in wanting to play an up tempo offense and finally has the roster to execute. Point #6 Jordan Gathers if healthy has shown a good eye from the perimeter. I believe he will get the minutes to showcase his game in the final year of his career. Point #7 Top 5 in this league generally means being above .500 by a game or two. We have consistently improved our home court edge over the past 5 years. That trend stays in place. Point #8 UD had a cinderella run last year. Every year the A10 brings more candidates to the NCAA. I believe we will get a minimum of 4 teams in this year. Expect more. Point #9 Jalen and Jaylen will develop as the A10 season moves along. I have heard nothing but good things about both on this board and from people not on this board. Point #10 Denzel Gregg, Xavier Smith and Jordan Tyson give us some hops and length. Point #11 Under MS, we always seem to bring in a JUCO that is A10 ready. I expect that to be the case this year. OK...pick apart my logic. Bigdobber is my favorite poster to respond to because we rarely agree and he responds with respectful replies. Following is my response to your logic. -- Point 1: Other schools graduate productive players, but Bonnies graduate their 3 starters and 2 of them are their leading scorers. Only St. Joseph and St. Louis lost as much as the Bonnies. -- Point 2: Kevin Larsen and Cody Lalanne both scored more points, had more rebounds and both selected ahead of Youssou during A10 Media Day. I agree Youssou has the potential to be the best center in the A10. -- Point 3: Matthew had a great season, which is reflected by the following stats; during A10 games Matt was 6th in the A-10 in scoring, 2nd in 3 pointers made and 5th in 3 point accuracy. I would be thankful to see Posley match Matthew's stats. -- Point 4: Dion had a solid season and pleased to see all the attention he is getting, but all this attention might be a problem. Last year Dion was unknown bench player, who always seemed to find himself open in the paint, which I attribute to his ability to always moving. Dion's offensive game showed steady improvement last year, but his scoring average declined during conference games. I think this is a result of coaches paying more attention to Dion. Does Dion have the offensive game to score with defenses focusing on him? Youssou has this ability but does Dion? -- Point 5: At this time every year we say this team is deep. Then the season concludes with Schmidt having a rotation of just 7 players. Past history says only 2 players will receive 20 plus minutes off the bench. My choice in order is Posley, Jalen Adams and a very close 3rd is Denzel. -- Point 6: Jordan a good eye from the perimeter? During conference games Jordan shot only 30.2% from 3s, which was below Charlon's shooting. Matt had a good eye from by hitting 40% of his 3s. Posley is the only player I see that can come close to matching Matthew's shooting eye. -- Point 7: Only once in the last 5 years has a top 5 team been a game or 2 above 500. This happened in the 2012 season, which had a strange occurrence of 4 teams tied for 5th place with 9-7 records. It would be a mistake to believe it will happen this year. -- Point 8: A-10 lost a lot of talent last year, which is shown by 8 of the 10 top scorers were seniors. I think this is going to be a down year for A-10, which is a big reason I picked the Bonnies with an 11-7 conference record. -- Point 9: It is really difficult to predict how much of an impact Jalen and Jaylen will have. I've seen both during 1st practice and Fan Jam. I think Jalen will be a part of the 7 man rotation. Bonnies are thin at point, but I still question how much PT Jaylen will see. -- Point 10: With so many players at the wings, I see Denzel being the first option off the bench in the post. Actually I can see Denzel being a potential starter. -- Point 11: I'm not sure we can call Andell as being a JUCO that was A-10 ready (he averaged just 6.2 ppg during conference games). From what I've seen Posley is clearly the best shooter on this team, but how is rest of his game? Biggest question for me this season. Schmidt relies on his seniors to stepping up their games and being leaders (difficult to be a leader coming off the bench). Jordan and Andell both struggled with their shooting and scoring during conference games. As seniors Matthew and Charlon stepped up big time and led Bonnies to 2nd most wins in Schmidt's coaching career. Can Jordan and Andell do the same? statsheet.com/mcb/teams/st-bonaventure/players?&stats=conferencestatsheet.com/mcb/conferences/a-10/player_stats?season=2013-2014&games=allstatsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/points_avg?games=2&conf=a-10&season=2013-2014&min=statsheet.com/mcb/conferences/a-10/team_stats?season=2013-2014#scoringwarrennolan.com/basketball/2012/conference/Atlantic%2010
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Post by class70 on Nov 1, 2014 11:56:52 GMT -5
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Post by bigdobber on Nov 1, 2014 12:43:42 GMT -5
Chuck... 1. I think YN will be the best center in the A10 this year. I have heard that the NBA scouts have him on their radar. 2. I honestly didn't look back at the past 5 years of standings and records, but if you are looking for 11-7 in conference we should be Top 5. 3. Posley will probably be the guy who is A10 ready this year. 4. I think coming off the bench as Jordan has done will hurt your shooting % as compared with being a starter and getting into the game flow from the onset. I suspect his 3 point shooting will move higher. 5. I believe looking at who left a conference is not necessarily the best way to judge where the conference will be in the upcoming season. I see pundits touting the Big East once more. A10 will have a solid ranking by year end. 6. Dion has shown he has a solid game. As a Junior I highly doubt he will take a step back. Who knows how high his ceiling could be? 7. I don't like to critique past Bona players careers. Matt Wright had a solid 4 year career. I don't see a drop off with the current roster. 8. We have a lot of combinations that we can put on the court. All in all I think we surprise to the upside. 9. Could be a great year for the Bonnies.
Class 70... The NBC analysis is a head scratcher. I am a little surprised Lasalle, Duquesne and Umass are being given the benefit of the doubt (Dukes have a lot of Juniors???) and other programs are not. These pre-season things are not the most in depth analysis and do seem to be written based on history and roster turnover. The Big Dobber analysis is that VCU will be solid and after that who knows. Also, our league will not take a step back. A10 has a chance to move higher.
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Post by bonaman2013 on Nov 1, 2014 14:00:27 GMT -5
Although optimistic, I agree with BigDobber.
I think the players Bona has returning is understated, and some teams in the conference were given favorable spots in the preseason rankings because of their finish last year. If SLU doesn't finish in the bottom three this year, I will be stunned. Also SJU lost three key starters, so they should experience a significant drop.
I went through all the teams in the conference to see how many players they return, and to see what those players did last to come up with a pretty simple formula.
I added up the points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, steals per game, blocks per game for all players who played in five games or more and compared it to what other teams return.
The teams that had higher numbers obviously returned more in talent than other teams. I did not consider JUCO or freshman players in this formula, but I did consider players that transferred from other D1 schools like Marcus Posley.
So if preseason rankings looked at just statistics from actual players, and not last year’s finish and recruiting classes, the statistics show this is how teams would finish this year:
1.) Rhode Island (Return nine players and score of 111.10) 2.)Richmond (8-100.70) 3.) VCU (9-98.7) 4.) GW (7-93.70) 5.) St. Bona (8-86.90) 6.) UMass (7-85.80) 7.) La Salle (8-85.09) 8.) Dayton (8-82.90) 9.) Duquesne (7-82.70) 10.) Fordham (5-82.10) 11.) Davidson (8-76.5) 12.) George Mason ( 8-74.6) 13.) Saint Joe's (8-57.5) 14.) Saint Louis (7-43.4)
But after looking at that information, my prediction for the A10 looks like this:
1.) Rhode Island (2.) VCU (3.) Richmond (4.) GW (5.) UMass (6.) St. Bona (7.)Dayton (8.) La Salle (9.) Duquesne (10.) Mason (11.) Saint Joe's (12.) Fordham (13.) Davidson (14.) SLU
I know picking Rhody to win it all might seem crazy but they return a ton of talent, and even though they went (14-18, 5-11) last year, they lost 11 games last year by seven points or less.
I think a lot of media officials forgot about Marcus Posley. If you took Posley's score off Bona's 86.9, they only have a total score of 74.8, which would be good for 12th. MP is a player that most don't know about, but I expect big things from him this year!
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Post by bigdobber on Nov 1, 2014 14:41:24 GMT -5
Not sure these algorithms have merit. I just think Shaka has the athletes and is a tremendous coach. Also, they are probably playing a tough OOC schedule which gets you ready for A10 play. VCU is #1. I think Davidson, Fordham, Duquesne and George Mason will in some order be the bottom 4. That leave 9 teams competing for spots 2 through 10. I see Bonas in the 5 slot. I don't expect we will ever get the respect from the national press but I think we will be a tough out for anyone on our schedule. If Adams is 80% of the hype, we can be in top 5. Posley is not someone I am factoring in here. I think the transition to the A10 can be a challenge and next year may be his year to shine. YN, Cumberland, Adams, Wright, and Gathers with Denzell off the bench gives us a shot. Dees is being given no mention but he is a size and may be more of a factor this year. Looking forward to the start of the season.
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Post by fjs64 on Nov 1, 2014 18:57:01 GMT -5
For the past few years my predictions have pretty much been spot on, but this year will be hard to predict as we could be a 19 win team or a 13 win team. Why the variance in my opinion, multiple factors are in play here.
The A10 has always been a guards league, and we have very little experience. Jordan Gathers is still recovering from post season surgery. Will he be ready, and if he is will he be near 100%. The backcourt has 2 JC transfers, PG Iakeem Alston and SG Marcus Posley. The track record of JC transfers show inconsistent Junior years (see Eric Mosley and Andell Cumberbatch) and then superior senior years (let’s hope Andell will follow in Eric’s footsteps). The other 1st year newcomers are Jaylen Adams at the point, Idris Taqqee and Jalen Adams (I like to think of him as Sky Adams). This is 5 first year backcourt players, trying to carry this team. This is scary to me.
Our frontcourt will be our strength, Dion Wright will have a breakout year, Yousou will dominate (when he is not in foul trouble), so watch out for my surprise player, Chris Dees as he will be Wes Unseld like (of course my surprise player last year, Jean Yves Toupane, did surprise me, but in the wrong way). Xavier Smith will start to prove that he was a good signing and do a very good job backing up Dion. Watch for Jordan Tyson as he develops, and he will have a few good games.
The other position is the small forward where Cumberbatch will start. Last year he had a good OOC, but the level of competition caught up with him in conference and he flat out lost his confidence. I really expect a great year from him, as long as he believes he is playing all the games around NYC. There is one more player that may be our best player, and that is Denzell Gregg. He needs to prove how good he is, and the challenge is for the coaching staff to get him enough minutes for him to become a star, so see the coaching staff giving him minutes at the 3 and 4.
If the guards are good, leaders emerge, and this inexperienced group plays great defense, then we will win 19 games, if guards struggle, leadership is lacking and there is a lack of defensive intensity, then we will be lucky to win 13 games. I will wait to after the secret scrimmage and exhibition game to finalize my thoughts.
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Post by bona1971 on Nov 2, 2014 11:37:31 GMT -5
fjs64 has some good points. Hopefully the OOC will be a good way to find out what we have, while still winning games. If we stay healthy it will be a real test of coaching as there may be a lot of players that do something well but finding the right combinations & rotation for each opponent will be one of the keys to success. Everything heard from the players so far seems to indicate they are willing to earn & share time but it remains to be seen if words match reality.
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