Road to A.C.

[Deleted]

With have the Conference schedule at the midway point, here is what the bottom seven has left. Unfortunately for SBU, they have already played an extra game, and on top of that they have the second hardest schedule remaining. Fortunately, SBU holds tiebreakers over two of the three times directly ahead of them and plays the third at home.

LaSalle (3-5) Remaining Opp (31-35 .470 - 3rd hardest)*SBU owns tiebreaker. (5 of 8 at home).
@gw (1-7) WIN
St. Joe's (7-1) LOSS
Richmond (3-5) WIN
Duquesne (6-3) LOSS
@temple (5-3) LOSS
UMASS (3-5) WIN
Fordham (1-7) WIN
@st. Louis (5-4) LOSS
(7-9)

UMASS (3-5) Remaining Opp (31-37 .456 - 4th hardest) @sbu (5 of 8 on the road)
@fordham (1-7) WIN
@sbu (3-6) LOSS
URI (5-4) WIN
@st. Joe's (7-1) LOSS
Duquesne (6-3) LOSS
@lasalle (3-5) LOSS
GW (1-7) WIN
@uri (5-4) LOSS
(6-10)

Richmond (3-5) Remaining Opp (30-37 .448 - 5th)*SBU owns tiebreaker. (5 of 8 home).
Duquesne (6-3) LOSS
@dayton(7-2) LOSS
@lasalle(3-5) LOSS
Charlotte (2-6) WIN
@fordham(1-7) WIN
GW(1-7) WIN
@charlotte(2-6)LOSS
Xavier(8-1) LOSS
(6-10)

SBU (3-6) Remaing Opp (28-30 .483) 2nd hardest (4 of 7 on the road).
@uri(5-4) LOSS
UMASS(3-5)WIN
@gw(1-7)LOSS
@temple(5-3)LOSS
St. Louis (5-4) WIN
@ St. Joe's (7-1)LOSS
Charlotte (2-6)WIN
(6-10)

Charlotte (2-6) Remaing Opp (25-42 .373) easiest @sbu last game of season. (5 of 8 on the road).
@st. Louis (5-4) LOSS
GW (1-7) WIN
Xavier(8-1) LOSS
@richmond(3-5) LOSS
@gw(1-7)WIN
Fordham(1-7)WIN
Richmond(3-5)WIN
@sbu(3-6) LOSS
(6-10)

Fordham (1-7) Remaing Opp (36-30 .545) Hardest 1-1 against SBU. (4 each)
UMASS(3-5)LOSS
@xavier(8-1)LOSS
@temple(5-3)LOSS
URI(5-4)LOSS
Richmond(3-5)LOSS
@charlotte(2-6)LOSS
@lasalle(3-5)LOSS
St. Joe's(7-1)LOSS
(1-15)

G.W. (1-7) Remaing Opp (29-37 .439) 2nd easiest Home against SBU. (4 each).
LaSalle(3-5)LOSS
@charlotte(2-6)LOSS
SBU(3-6)WIN
@xavier(8-1)LOSS
Charlotte(2-6)LOSS
@richmond(3-5)LOSS
@umass(3-5)LOSS
Temple(5-3)LOSS
(2-14)

Given all this I like SBU's chances to make it to AC. 3 of their remaining seven games are against the bottom seven, they own tiebreakers against two of the three teams in front of them (haven't played the third yet), and they have a home game against a 5-4 St. Louis team.
As I see it SBU would finish (6-10) tied with UMASS, Richmond, and Charlotte. Owning tiebreakers against all of them SBU would finish 9th.

[njbonnie08]

Great job breaking this down....I was going to do it for the blog within the next few days but you beat me to it and did a great job.

SBU needs to take care of business against GW and Charlotte and they will be in, its really that simple folks.

[Chuck]

Great post JAC. How about a more simplified view, which also benefits the Bonnies? Bonnies are basically competing with 3 other teams (Charlotte, GW and Fordham) for an A-10 bid. Two teams get a bid and the other two are left out.

Now to compare the difficulty of their remaining schedules. There are basically 3 tiers in the current standings of the A-10.

Tier 1 - teams with 6 or more wins (Xavier, Dayton, St. Joes and Duquesne)
Tier 2 - teams with 3 to 5 wins (RI, Temple, St. Louis, Richmond, U-Mass, LaSalle and Bonnies)
Tier 3 - teams with 1 win (Charlotte, GW and Fordham)

Remaining schedules from easiest to most difficult
1. Bonnies have the easiest schedule with one game in tier 1 (St. Joes) and two games in tier 3 (Charlotte and GW).
2. GW - one game in tier 1 (Xavier) and two games in tier 3 (Charlotte twice)
3. Charlotte - two games in tier 1 (Dayton and Xavier) and three games in tier 3 (GW twice and Fordham).
4. Fordham - two games in tier 1 (Xavier and St. Joes) and only one game in tier 3 (Charlotte)

Fordham clearly has the most difficult schedule. GW and Charlotte both have the disadvantage of playing each other twice. Bonnies biggest advantage is they already have 2 more wins than GW, Charlotte and Fordham. Bonnies have the clear advantage in getting a bid to the A-10 tournament.

[wgt]

Thanks JAC & Chuck for your break downs on the Bonnies quest for AC