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Post by njbonnie08 on Mar 7, 2016 12:43:03 GMT -5
Thoughts this AM on Lunardi's Bracket, our seeding and match-ups in Brooklyn. As much as I want to say Joe's being a homer, it appears that many brackets like SJU as an eight seed and us as an 11-12 so maybe we're all missing something? Our guys at DanceCard think SJU and SBU are nearly the same team and I agree. You just wonder what this team has to do in order to move into a safe spot...likely win at least a game in Brooklyn....It's going to be a different/stressful weekend. Thoughts on the #Bonnies NCAA bubble situation/Brooklyn Match-ups- bit.ly/1M344W4www.thebonablog.com |
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Post by Chuck on Mar 7, 2016 12:47:35 GMT -5
Lol-nardi's update still has St J as an 8, not budging all week despite two losses. We go to Dayton and fight Michigan to play in. I challenge anyone to find a single poll where two losses in the final week didn't result in any other team dropping in position m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=251®ion=3&year=2016He's not worth getting pissed off about anymore, I just ignore him and ESPN.. They don't know what their talking about, so why bother? Just have fun with the other predictions, knowing St. Joe's won't be an 8 Seed.. I'm not upset with Lunardi's 8 seed for St. Joes, but it is ridiculous for him having the Bonnies as one of the last four in. Overall, Bonnies and St. Joes have very similar credentials. Jerry Palm of CBS has a much more reasonable bracket, which reflects Bonnies and St. Joes having similar profiles. Here is his A-10 seeds and he actually has Bonnies with a better seed than St. Joes. Dayton (6) Bonnies (8) St. Joes (9) VCU (10) GW is one of his last 4 out. As much as I like the respect Palm shows the Bonnies with an 8 seed, I would prefer a seed outside of the 8/9, because a win Bonnies would be matched up with a number 1 seed. Honestly I can't see how anyone can consider the Bonnies a bubble team. www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology?ttag=MM16_os_lk_ns1_palm_preSS |
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Post by class70 on Mar 7, 2016 12:54:46 GMT -5
Lunardi is just one guy and doesn't have such a great track record. I will ignore and move on.
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Post by bub on Mar 7, 2016 13:20:51 GMT -5
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Post by bub on Mar 7, 2016 13:29:15 GMT -5
Thoughts this AM on Lunardi's Bracket, our seeding and match-ups in Brooklyn. As much as I want to say Joe's being a homer, it appears that many brackets like SJU as an eight seed and us as an 11-12 so maybe we're all missing something? Our guys at DanceCard think SJU and SBU are nearly the same team and I agree. You just wonder what this team has to do in order to move into a safe spot...likely win at least a game in Brooklyn....It's going to be a different/stressful Wait a minute. Your guys think SJU and SBU are nearly the same team? And you agree? How is that possible? We are clearly the better team under any metric system, as proven on the court. Here's the issue. I could care less what seed we get. But if SJU loses Friday, they appear to be safely in. If we lose Friday, all of us are sweating on Sunday. And that is a travesty. |
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Post by Chuck on Mar 7, 2016 13:29:46 GMT -5
Thoughts on the #Bonnies NCAA bubble situation/Brooklyn Match-ups- bit.ly/1M344W4Another great article from Ian and the Bona Blog. Ian is absolutely right with the following "While many fans will pull for an upset of the Wildcats on Thursday night I think it’s wise to pull for the Wildcats and Jack Gibbs. Sure, they’re a better team, and a dangerous one. But, they also have a very solid RPI (62) and if the Bonnies lost, it could only be categorized as an “indifferent loss” on a neutral floor…nothing damming. But, if the sky fell and SBU lost to La Salle (237) and Duquesne (144) it would be a resume crippling loss 48 hours from selection Sunday." A loss to a LaSalle or Duquesne is the only way I can see the Bonnies being put back on the bubble. As Ian says a loss to Davidson should not make that much of a difference. Saturday I was rooting for Dayton to beat VCU, so Bonnies can be Co-Champs, but deep down I think it would have been better if VCU won and Bonnies finishing 2nd. Now the Bonnies will likely face a good Davidson team and if they win they'll probably be matched up with VCU. I think it would have been better to have the 2 seed with the likely opponent being Rhode Island (RPI 106). I think a loss to RI would not be "crippling." I think Rhode Island (lost to Fordham in their last game) is a much weaker team than Davidson. The biggest benefit of a 2 seed is the Bonnies wouldn't have played VCU until the championship game. I think Dayton is a better match up for the Bonnies when you consider VCU's strong inside game. This is the first season I've felt the Bonnies had a good chance of winning the A-10 Tournament. warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/conference/Atlantic-10 |
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Post by homersbu on Mar 7, 2016 13:33:35 GMT -5
Lunardi's hands are tied by two masters: Saint Joe's and ESPN, and the latter is more likely the culprit. ESPN is married to its BPI index, so much so that when they show bubble graphics on TV, there we are, slumming around the low 70s. It's a terrible look when those less invested than us see only that number and wonder why we're even being considered at all.
The least they could do is show the RPI alongside it to give some credence to our inclusion in the conversation. And we'd be naive to think that ESPN isn't telling Lunardi that the BPI is the primary metric he should be considering. Why do you think he continues to rate Wichita State so much higher than most folks do after their loss to UNI.
I stand by this: A loss to a top 65 Davidson team absolutely shouldn't be a reason to drop us out of the field. (Losing to Duquesne or LaSalle for a second time might be another story.) If going 14-4 and being co-champs in the 7th-best league in the nation isn't enough on its own merit, then just blow the NCAA up and start over. (I was being metaphorical, jpschmack.)
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JC
Junior Member
Posts: 383
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Post by JC on Mar 7, 2016 13:40:58 GMT -5
A loss to Davidson may or may not get us booted. A loss to Duquesne probably would.
However, even though its the riskier matchup, if we lost to Duquesne on neutral court in that situation, I for one will not be complaining on Selection Sunday, if we are left out. I want a fair chance, that's all. If our bid depends on beating Duquesne, fine with me.
The Dukes have given us trouble, but they seem to run out of gas at the end of games. They would be playing their third game in three days. I think I'd take my chances with a tired Duquesne team.
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Post by Chuck on Mar 7, 2016 13:44:18 GMT -5
Wait a minute. Your guys think SJU and SBU are nearly the same team? And you agree? How is that possible? We are clearly the better team under any metric system, as proven on the court. Here's the issue. I could care less what seed we get. But if SJU loses Friday, they appear to be safely in. If we lose Friday, all of us are sweating on Sunday. And that is a travesty. As JH posted earlier the Bonnies and St. Joes have very similar numbers (wins, losses, RPI, wins/ losses against top 50 and top 100 RPI teams and etc.) I'm sure everyone on this board believes the Bonnies are a better team because they've proven it twice on the court, but it does not change the fact they have very similar profiles. I'm not so sure St. Joes is safely in if they have a bad loss, which can occur by GW being upset by a low seed. Losing their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 would definitely put them on the bubble. warrennolan.com/basketball/2016/schedule/Saint-Josephs |
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Post by gdub2009 on Mar 7, 2016 13:46:59 GMT -5
Absolutely, I want Davidson on Friday for a couple reasons. One, it is not a bad loss if we lose and it is a solid win if we win. Two, we match up better with Davidson. I know we beat them with Sullivan, but they don't have a big man to be scared of or a big strong wing that can drive to the basket at will. Duquense and La Salle had that, and they are bad match-ups for us. Can the Bona fans stop tweeting the crap out of Lunardi about St.Joe's being higher than Bonas? Just because we beat St.Joe's twice doesn't mean our resume is better. I believe St.Joe's has a better resume than us. They should be around the 8 to 9 seed range at the moment. Our resume should put us in the 9 to 10 seed range. That is where the beef should be with Lunardi. You also have to remember that he works for ESPN and ESPN loves to push the Power 5. It would be hard to believe that this doesn't influence Joe's picks. Just take a look at KPI which was the best last year at picking the field and the seed lines. www.kpisports.net/rankings/kpibasketball/ |
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JC
Junior Member
Posts: 383
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Post by JC on Mar 7, 2016 13:56:37 GMT -5
gdub2009,
Are you sure St. Joes has a better resume?
"Blind Resumes
#1 (These two teams are from the same conference)
Team A: 24-7 (13-5), RPI 32, SOS 88, Top 50 (2-4), Top 100 (5-6)
Team B: 22-7 (14-4), RPI 28, SOS 89, Top 50 (3-2), Top 100 (6-5), Beat Team A twice"
Source: nhbrackets.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/bracket-projection-march-6/
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Post by Phantom on Mar 7, 2016 14:12:03 GMT -5
Not bad JC...now lets see what stats gdubs can find... Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!
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Post by orangehater on Mar 7, 2016 14:22:00 GMT -5
Now that bracketmatrix has been updated yet again with more brackets accounting for the weekend, the gap has narrowed. We project as a high 9/low 10, with St J less than a full seed above us. We collectively move out of the play in game there as well. One win and end the drama.
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Post by tomgleason on Mar 7, 2016 14:50:52 GMT -5
I just found out the St Bonaventure is #274 in Division 1 in alphabetical order....I checked Live RPI and they had a glitch where everyone is 0-0 and in alphabetical order...freaked me out to see we weren't in the 20's until I realized...lol
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Post by sbu79 on Mar 7, 2016 14:51:25 GMT -5
I think there are some really good and interesting points made on this page of this thread. One that I had overlooked, but that seems sound to me, is that of the BPI being a driver in Lunardi's rankings. It's just like in any other corporation where you are "encouraged" to use your own products. I also agree that our fans need to back off on harassing Lunardi over his rankings. After a while, it only builds ill will.
I will admit I was all for Dayton winning and the Bonnies sharing the league regular season crown. My reasoning was that A10 should get 3 in, and if we are co-champs, how do they keep us out? I still fear, however, what Chris DiSano pointed out early in the season about "brand reputation." We have very little compared to so many others. We are always fighting that headwind.
I've seen the argument that we would be better off facing St. Joe's again instead of VCU. First, we have to get to that game, of course, and I am not one to think anyone can be taken for granted in any of the tournament games. They are all going to be battles compounded by our inability to pull away from anyone and maintain a comfortable lead since January. I fear Davison. I fear Duquesne too. And I fear Rhode Island.
Getting VCU (if we get there) gives us a chance to even the score with them, and that, I think, would be a boost in many ways. Face it, you have to play some pretty tough games if you are going to win it all.
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