Post by ceharv on Feb 4, 2024 16:04:06 GMT -5
With this weekend’s results in the books, IMO it’s not too soon to start a dedicated thread examining our chances at getting the double bye in Brooklyn. I hope I git this correct and I will not waste time discussing the importance of the double bye, but instead presume anyone reading this will know. If you don’t know, just DM me (at ceharv@msn.com) and I’ll explain.
First, I am not going to include Dayton or Richmond in the details. I am not sure either is mathematically assured of a top four, but the eye test tells me they are in. I am going to presume that Loyola (at 6-2) is close, but not locked in, plus they have so many critical games upcoming that I would be talking about them a lot anyway. With Duquesne winning on Saturday at RI (Thanks Dukes and let’s make that your first and last road win in the A10 this week), I will include them, but not St. Louis, LaSalle or Davidson as they have 8, 7 and 7 losses respectively, which I think is too much of a hole to get out of to or even get in a tie for fourth, even if it is unusual to be discussing the double bye candidates with neither Davidson or SLU included.
So as I see it, besides Bonas (4-5, and in a 4 way tie for seventh) the candidates are:
Loyola (alone in third at 7-2 and so in very good shape even if not a lock),
VCU (alone in fourth at 6-3, but still not a lock with games to go including with Richmond on the road (sort of), and both games with Dayton),
UMass and St. Joes (both a game ahead of us at 5-4),
then Mason, Fordham and URI (all tied with us at 4-5),
and GWU and Duquesne (both 3-5 but IMO still in the mix, but tettering on the edge of falling out).
We have the tiebreaker locked up against VCU, while Mason has it locked over us (which is trouble and we better not give up the tiebreaker in either game at home this week since one lost tiebreaker is trouble enough and two might be fatal). At this point, as shown below virtually every league game remaining has important tiebreaker impact. For Bonas, the two games this week are huge. First the tiebreaker against UMass will be determined Wednesday night in the RC and the greaker with Duquesne could be decided in the Dukes favor Saturday there as well.
I will start by looking at our remaining schedule, as noted we start this week with UMass and Duquesne in the RC, then followed by at Fordham (the 14th), home to Davidson (17th), at LaSalle (21st), at UMass (24th), home to Loyola ( 27th), at GWU (March 6th), and finishing in the RC with SLU on March 9th. So that’s 5 in the RC, 4 on the road. IMO just going 5 and 4 will not be good enough and we’ll need to steal at least one on the road.
Looking at this week beyond our games, big ones to watch are :
Tuesday:
VCU at Fordham
URI at GWU
Dayton at SJU
Wednesday:
Davidson at Duquesne
Loyola at Mason
Next weekend:
Dayton at VCU ( weekly ESPN 2 game)
Loyola at GWU
SLU at SJU
LaSalle at Richmond
Mason at Davidson
URI at UMass (weekly Sunday Showdown)
Like I said, just about every game is important. Prepare to do some ESPN Plus surfing. Things will be clearer in a week, obviously, but I think it is time to start focusing on the Top 4 chances. I will try to update this thread each Sunday to highlight the critical games coming up that week.
So if I am correct that winning out at home would not automatically get us the double bye, what is the best chance for a road win to get us to 10 league Ws in the regular season season? Records say LaSalle on the 21st, but who knows what will be going on then and I think Dunphy will have those guys playing hard to the end (IMO he is really changing the philosophy there and will complete that by having them in the double bye mix next year). I think Mooney will win the COY award for ‘24, but Dunphy deserves consideration as well, along with Martin at UMass and Valentine at Loyola, IMO. But that a discussion for another thread, IMO.
First, I am not going to include Dayton or Richmond in the details. I am not sure either is mathematically assured of a top four, but the eye test tells me they are in. I am going to presume that Loyola (at 6-2) is close, but not locked in, plus they have so many critical games upcoming that I would be talking about them a lot anyway. With Duquesne winning on Saturday at RI (Thanks Dukes and let’s make that your first and last road win in the A10 this week), I will include them, but not St. Louis, LaSalle or Davidson as they have 8, 7 and 7 losses respectively, which I think is too much of a hole to get out of to or even get in a tie for fourth, even if it is unusual to be discussing the double bye candidates with neither Davidson or SLU included.
So as I see it, besides Bonas (4-5, and in a 4 way tie for seventh) the candidates are:
Loyola (alone in third at 7-2 and so in very good shape even if not a lock),
VCU (alone in fourth at 6-3, but still not a lock with games to go including with Richmond on the road (sort of), and both games with Dayton),
UMass and St. Joes (both a game ahead of us at 5-4),
then Mason, Fordham and URI (all tied with us at 4-5),
and GWU and Duquesne (both 3-5 but IMO still in the mix, but tettering on the edge of falling out).
We have the tiebreaker locked up against VCU, while Mason has it locked over us (which is trouble and we better not give up the tiebreaker in either game at home this week since one lost tiebreaker is trouble enough and two might be fatal). At this point, as shown below virtually every league game remaining has important tiebreaker impact. For Bonas, the two games this week are huge. First the tiebreaker against UMass will be determined Wednesday night in the RC and the greaker with Duquesne could be decided in the Dukes favor Saturday there as well.
I will start by looking at our remaining schedule, as noted we start this week with UMass and Duquesne in the RC, then followed by at Fordham (the 14th), home to Davidson (17th), at LaSalle (21st), at UMass (24th), home to Loyola ( 27th), at GWU (March 6th), and finishing in the RC with SLU on March 9th. So that’s 5 in the RC, 4 on the road. IMO just going 5 and 4 will not be good enough and we’ll need to steal at least one on the road.
Looking at this week beyond our games, big ones to watch are :
Tuesday:
VCU at Fordham
URI at GWU
Dayton at SJU
Wednesday:
Davidson at Duquesne
Loyola at Mason
Next weekend:
Dayton at VCU ( weekly ESPN 2 game)
Loyola at GWU
SLU at SJU
LaSalle at Richmond
Mason at Davidson
URI at UMass (weekly Sunday Showdown)
Like I said, just about every game is important. Prepare to do some ESPN Plus surfing. Things will be clearer in a week, obviously, but I think it is time to start focusing on the Top 4 chances. I will try to update this thread each Sunday to highlight the critical games coming up that week.
So if I am correct that winning out at home would not automatically get us the double bye, what is the best chance for a road win to get us to 10 league Ws in the regular season season? Records say LaSalle on the 21st, but who knows what will be going on then and I think Dunphy will have those guys playing hard to the end (IMO he is really changing the philosophy there and will complete that by having them in the double bye mix next year). I think Mooney will win the COY award for ‘24, but Dunphy deserves consideration as well, along with Martin at UMass and Valentine at Loyola, IMO. But that a discussion for another thread, IMO.
