Post by ceharv on Mar 21, 2024 10:25:08 GMT -5
The transfer portal is here to stay and will from now on significantly impact the game. But ruin it? I don’t believe so. Any time a strict restriction is in place, then suddenly released, the impact of the release is enhanced in the short term. But then as people get used to it, they find out the alternative they were hoping for is not always the wonderful thing they thought it would be. (Remember, my background includes the removal of the intervisitation rules at Bonas. Shortly after the removal of the hated absolute prohibition, students, particularly females, complained about the intrusion of the opposite sex on their privacy in the dorms.)
I think several factors will reduce the impact and appeal of transferring.
First, right now many players suddenly have six years of eligibility to use, with little or no chance of playing beyond college, at least not without moving overseas (which not everyone is suited for). The six years include a graduate transfer year, plus the extra year due to Covid. The extra Covid years will end this year or next Iam not certain, but soon for sure, so that means less eligibility for everyone, since that year applied to everyone in college in the critical lost season. That is huge reduction in the sheer number of players eligible to transfer.
Second, not everyone earns a degree and thus is eligible to transfer as a graduate. Hell, as crazy as this sounds now, maybe some graduate schools will reimpose stricter admission requirements for acceptance into their graduate programs instead of just accepting every applicant the football or basketball coach says he wants for his Program.
A third possibility is that word will start getting around that transferring is hard and disruptive, and doesn’t always provide the benefit promised. Just look at the guys who have transferred out of Bonas. How many have really improved their stock? We don’t know about the facts of NIL money, but I haven’t noticed anyone who has significantly improved his draft stock by moving elsewhere (or for example, going from an all-A10 player to an All-American at a Power5/6 Program.) So I am thinking the the number of players who will report back to friends at that old school that the move was a pain and just wasn’t worth it will increase and reduce the presumed advantage to moving on.
Another possibility is that NIL money may dry up a bit - maybe, just maybe, those providing all that money may find their return on investment is less satisfactory then they thought it would be, and isn’t tax deductible, and their willingness to write that big check, or any check, will go away.
So IMO things will settle down and the yearly impact of the transfer portal will settle into something less disruptive to the sport as a whole. Wishful thinking? Probably yes. Crazy thinking? I don’t think it is.
I think several factors will reduce the impact and appeal of transferring.
First, right now many players suddenly have six years of eligibility to use, with little or no chance of playing beyond college, at least not without moving overseas (which not everyone is suited for). The six years include a graduate transfer year, plus the extra year due to Covid. The extra Covid years will end this year or next Iam not certain, but soon for sure, so that means less eligibility for everyone, since that year applied to everyone in college in the critical lost season. That is huge reduction in the sheer number of players eligible to transfer.
Second, not everyone earns a degree and thus is eligible to transfer as a graduate. Hell, as crazy as this sounds now, maybe some graduate schools will reimpose stricter admission requirements for acceptance into their graduate programs instead of just accepting every applicant the football or basketball coach says he wants for his Program.
A third possibility is that word will start getting around that transferring is hard and disruptive, and doesn’t always provide the benefit promised. Just look at the guys who have transferred out of Bonas. How many have really improved their stock? We don’t know about the facts of NIL money, but I haven’t noticed anyone who has significantly improved his draft stock by moving elsewhere (or for example, going from an all-A10 player to an All-American at a Power5/6 Program.) So I am thinking the the number of players who will report back to friends at that old school that the move was a pain and just wasn’t worth it will increase and reduce the presumed advantage to moving on.
Another possibility is that NIL money may dry up a bit - maybe, just maybe, those providing all that money may find their return on investment is less satisfactory then they thought it would be, and isn’t tax deductible, and their willingness to write that big check, or any check, will go away.
So IMO things will settle down and the yearly impact of the transfer portal will settle into something less disruptive to the sport as a whole. Wishful thinking? Probably yes. Crazy thinking? I don’t think it is.
