Post by mick on Jun 4, 2024 16:10:43 GMT -5
I wasn't planning to offer comments on the upcoming Belmont Stakes to be run for the first time at Saratoga Race Course at the shorter 1 1/2 mile distance but a number of you reached out and asked.
So, here we go. It remains five days from the $2 million race and a lot can happen before entering the starting gate. The weather may be a major issue. Current forecast calls for heavy rains on Thursday, the first day of four day Belmont Racing Festival. Figures, Bona Venture Stables' Beautiful Thief will make her racing debut in the 5th race at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. A surface move is likely.
Friday may see occasional showers throughout the afternoon and Saturday, Belmont Stakes Day, expects heavy cloud cover and rain showers throughout the afternoon.
If you are wagering on Belmont Festival racing be aware of the conditions and impact on surfaces.
A crowd of 50,000 is expected for Friday and Saturday with smaller crowds of 20,000 or more on Thursday and Sunday. NYRA security precautions could impact attendance if it rains. And they are prohibiting umbrellas of any kind inside the race course grounds.
Let's take a look at the Belmont Stakes field.
A smaller field of 10 starters will help runners avoid traffic congestion unlike the 20 horse field of the Kentucky Derby.
1- Seize the Grey will not be the race favorite even though he stole the Preakness Stakes with a devastating drive along the rail for a 2 1/2 length victory. He exploded out of the starting gate leading the field wire-to-wire while setting a moderate early pace through a 47.3 seconds half mile. He was the clear speed in the race and used the muddy track conditions to control things.
Saturday he will not be the only speed in the race. And with the distance reduced by a quarter mile others won't be hesitant to challenge early. If conditions allow we could see a 46 second or better first half mile.
2- Resilience will not live up to his name. He made a big move midway in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby but flattened out badly in the final quarter mile. I see the same happening at Saratoga.
3 - Mystik Dan the Kentucky Derby winner and a fast closing 2nd place finisher in the Preakness. He is a legitimate closer in a field dominated by early speed runners, each wanting the lead. Can he stalk the early leaders, stay clear on the outside and make another dramatic stretch run? The Derby was run over muddy conditions which we could see Saturday. He's proven he can run in the slop and win at the classic 1 1/4 mile distance.
4 - The Wine Steward has proven himself with three 90+ Beyer speed figures. He can run on the pace or just off and close in the stretch. But is he good enough with this field? He never tested Grade 1 quality runners. A jockey change to my favorite rider Manny Franco might be key.
5 - Antiquarian is being touted by rail birds this week as the wise guy horse. He's training well, looks great on the track but my feeling is he'll give backers an early thrill but we won't see him in the winner's circle.
6 - Dornoch has early speed but I don't think he can get the lead. He proved his dislike for dirt or kickback in his face last time out in the Derby. He was a well beaten 10th. He's along for the ride Saturday.
7 - Protective remains a maiden seeking his first career win. Enough said.
8 - Honor Marie had a lot of trouble and was bounced around early in the Derby losing any chance of being a factor in the race. He doesn't have much early speed and is likely to find himself too far back early to challenge for the win.
9 - Sierra Leone now we are talking. In the Derby she battled my choice Forever Young all throughout the stretch run as they repeatedly bumped each other. Taylor Gaffalione grievous riding foul in the last stride force Forever Young off stride and cost him the Derby victory. Some see it differently feeling the bumping cost Sierra Leone the win. He's the strongest closer in the race. He also is talented enough that he can stay in contact with the early runners without the lead. Everything points to a win for him on Saturday. The weather shouldn't be a factor in his performance.
10 - Mindframe is a newcomer to the Triple Crown series. He has devastating early speed and won both previous starts. He's yet to test stakes quality performers. He's talented but I think it is too early for him to shine. He'll be a factor in stakes company later in the season.
Who's the choice?
Even though he's yet to cracked the 100 Beyer level, I think this year's Belmont Stakes goes to (9) Sierra Leone followed by (3) Mystik Dan, (4) The Wine Steward and (1) Seize the Grey. I'll also add (8) Honor Marie underneath in the exotic bets.
Bona Venture Stables, LLC
So, here we go. It remains five days from the $2 million race and a lot can happen before entering the starting gate. The weather may be a major issue. Current forecast calls for heavy rains on Thursday, the first day of four day Belmont Racing Festival. Figures, Bona Venture Stables' Beautiful Thief will make her racing debut in the 5th race at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. A surface move is likely.
Friday may see occasional showers throughout the afternoon and Saturday, Belmont Stakes Day, expects heavy cloud cover and rain showers throughout the afternoon.
If you are wagering on Belmont Festival racing be aware of the conditions and impact on surfaces.
A crowd of 50,000 is expected for Friday and Saturday with smaller crowds of 20,000 or more on Thursday and Sunday. NYRA security precautions could impact attendance if it rains. And they are prohibiting umbrellas of any kind inside the race course grounds.
Let's take a look at the Belmont Stakes field.
A smaller field of 10 starters will help runners avoid traffic congestion unlike the 20 horse field of the Kentucky Derby.
1- Seize the Grey will not be the race favorite even though he stole the Preakness Stakes with a devastating drive along the rail for a 2 1/2 length victory. He exploded out of the starting gate leading the field wire-to-wire while setting a moderate early pace through a 47.3 seconds half mile. He was the clear speed in the race and used the muddy track conditions to control things.
Saturday he will not be the only speed in the race. And with the distance reduced by a quarter mile others won't be hesitant to challenge early. If conditions allow we could see a 46 second or better first half mile.
2- Resilience will not live up to his name. He made a big move midway in the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby but flattened out badly in the final quarter mile. I see the same happening at Saratoga.
3 - Mystik Dan the Kentucky Derby winner and a fast closing 2nd place finisher in the Preakness. He is a legitimate closer in a field dominated by early speed runners, each wanting the lead. Can he stalk the early leaders, stay clear on the outside and make another dramatic stretch run? The Derby was run over muddy conditions which we could see Saturday. He's proven he can run in the slop and win at the classic 1 1/4 mile distance.
4 - The Wine Steward has proven himself with three 90+ Beyer speed figures. He can run on the pace or just off and close in the stretch. But is he good enough with this field? He never tested Grade 1 quality runners. A jockey change to my favorite rider Manny Franco might be key.
5 - Antiquarian is being touted by rail birds this week as the wise guy horse. He's training well, looks great on the track but my feeling is he'll give backers an early thrill but we won't see him in the winner's circle.
6 - Dornoch has early speed but I don't think he can get the lead. He proved his dislike for dirt or kickback in his face last time out in the Derby. He was a well beaten 10th. He's along for the ride Saturday.
7 - Protective remains a maiden seeking his first career win. Enough said.
8 - Honor Marie had a lot of trouble and was bounced around early in the Derby losing any chance of being a factor in the race. He doesn't have much early speed and is likely to find himself too far back early to challenge for the win.
9 - Sierra Leone now we are talking. In the Derby she battled my choice Forever Young all throughout the stretch run as they repeatedly bumped each other. Taylor Gaffalione grievous riding foul in the last stride force Forever Young off stride and cost him the Derby victory. Some see it differently feeling the bumping cost Sierra Leone the win. He's the strongest closer in the race. He also is talented enough that he can stay in contact with the early runners without the lead. Everything points to a win for him on Saturday. The weather shouldn't be a factor in his performance.
10 - Mindframe is a newcomer to the Triple Crown series. He has devastating early speed and won both previous starts. He's yet to test stakes quality performers. He's talented but I think it is too early for him to shine. He'll be a factor in stakes company later in the season.
Who's the choice?
Even though he's yet to cracked the 100 Beyer level, I think this year's Belmont Stakes goes to (9) Sierra Leone followed by (3) Mystik Dan, (4) The Wine Steward and (1) Seize the Grey. I'll also add (8) Honor Marie underneath in the exotic bets.
Bona Venture Stables, LLC