Post by mick on Oct 29, 2024 16:05:37 GMT -5
It's almost time for the 2024 Breeders' Cup Championships at Del Mar Race Course in southern California. Weather should not be a factor this year. But the invasion of foreign influences could overwhelm American performances. I write only of horse racing.
The 14 Breeders' Cup races have drawn an impressive number of foreign bred runners and could sweep several races. We'll start with the five 2YO or "runners of the future" Friday, Nov. 1 races. Keep in mind the three-hour time difference from the east coast to sunshine of southern California for post times.
Friday, Nov. 1 (TV coverage from 4 pm to 8pm (ET) USA Network & Peacock)
The first Breeders' Cup race goes to the post as the 6th race at 5:45 p.m. (ET) the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, a Grade 1 for 2YOs with a $1 million purse.
Five of the 12 starters are European with another U.S. bred but racing in Europe. The Europeans are strong enough they could sweep the turf sprint. The strongest European runners are European Aesterius (2) and American Governor Sam (10) trained by our George Weaver.
Aesterius, riden by star English jockey James Doyle, has won five of six career races including a Grade 2 last time out. He has the quickest 5 furlong turf run in the field. Governor Sam is the best option for a win from a runner on this side of the pond. He's also won four of his five career starts and may possess the fastest early speed.
I'll go with Aesterius (2) for the win and back it up with a quid or two on Governor Sam (10).
A European trifecta is possible boxing 2, 3,10,12 and add 7 for a superfecta box. I could flop the 3 with 7 for a 2,7,10,12 trifecta.
*****
The 7th race (post 6:25 pm ET) is the $2 million BC Juvenile fillies, Grade 1 for 2YOs at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. A bit of a toss up any horse might win this contest. Immersive (3) with Manny Franco aboard has won all three of her races including the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last month. It was an impressive run while stretching out to 1 1/16th miles in preparation of the Breeders' Cup. Also interesting are Non Compliant (7) with a Grade 2 win, American Bikini (9), Japanese bred and distance may be a question, and Scottish Lassie (10) a 9 length maiden win in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Aqueduct.
Let's go with (3) Immersive for the win and box him with (4) La Cara, (7) Non Complaint, (9) American Bikini and (10) Scottish Lassie.
*****
Back to the grass for the day's 8th race BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, a Grade 1 for 2YOs. It carries a $1 million purse. Post time is 7:05 pm (ET). There are four Europeans among the 14 starters on a two turn very tight turf course.
The obvious favorite is (1) Lake Victoria (IRE). She is untested at the mile distance and two turn racing, but she has royal turf breeding. She's won all four of her starts, the last was impressive over a soft turf at 6 furlongs. She's also run well at 7 furlongs indicating the distance will not be an issue. The question is the turns. This is often a new experience for young European horses who typically run sprints in a straight line.
She is stuck down along the rail so will she rush to the lead, settle into the large field and be clear for a relatively short stretch run?
I'm trying something different. (12) May Day Ready will get a perfect ride from international star jockey Frankie Dettori. This girl has the top closing speed in the race. Dettori will let her settle early, keep her a bit outside the tight field and put her in position to sweep by and grab the victory at the wire.
So, it's (12) May Day Ready on top with (4) Sythian who has enough tactical speed to be well placed early, (1) Lake Victoria, (2) Nitrogen and (9) Kilwin.
*****
Next up it's the day's 9th - BC Juvenile, Grade 1 at 1 /16 miles on the dirt. Purse $2 million. This race brings a lot of intrigue. Bob Baffert entered three in this race and none will be the favorite or probable winner. A lot of money exchanged hands at the sales for these runners. The Japanese come with inexperienced runners and Chad Brown is well positioned for a dirt win. Dirt with Chad? And there's even an Ohio bred in the race.
The favorite and likely winner will come from the outside 11 post - Chancer McPatrick, a Brown trainee. However I'm leaning inside with the (1) East Avenue. He has the top Beyer speed figure in the field, and won both his starts with room to spare.
I may try (1) East Avenue and (11) Chancer McPatrick over (4) Ferocious, (5) Jonathan's Way, (7) Gaming. A saver for this could be (6) Citizen Bull.
*****
We move back onto the grass for the 10th race - BC Juvenile Turf, Grade 1 at a mile for 2YOs. The purse is $1 million. Six of the 14 runners are European bred and throw in one from Japan. The Europeans appear strongest in this turf contest. I like (11) New Century (IRE) who has the best closing speed. He's already run once here in North America capturing the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine so he is comfortable with a narrow course and two turns. His rider Osin Murphy is one of Europe's top riders, this is important.
Another to give a serious look is (12) Aomori City (Fr) ridden by William Buick. He may surprise at a decent price. (13) Henri Matisse (IRE) also is interesting especially with the drop of nine pounds in the weight allowance.
I see the race as a toss up among those three. I'll throw in (5) Zulu Kingdom (IRE) for a European sweep. Give a look at (14) Tenacious Leader as a possibility.
There you have it for Friday's juvenile runners.
Next up is Saturday's 9 Breeders' Cup races.
Bona Venture Stables, LLC
The 14 Breeders' Cup races have drawn an impressive number of foreign bred runners and could sweep several races. We'll start with the five 2YO or "runners of the future" Friday, Nov. 1 races. Keep in mind the three-hour time difference from the east coast to sunshine of southern California for post times.
Friday, Nov. 1 (TV coverage from 4 pm to 8pm (ET) USA Network & Peacock)
The first Breeders' Cup race goes to the post as the 6th race at 5:45 p.m. (ET) the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint, a Grade 1 for 2YOs with a $1 million purse.
Five of the 12 starters are European with another U.S. bred but racing in Europe. The Europeans are strong enough they could sweep the turf sprint. The strongest European runners are European Aesterius (2) and American Governor Sam (10) trained by our George Weaver.
Aesterius, riden by star English jockey James Doyle, has won five of six career races including a Grade 2 last time out. He has the quickest 5 furlong turf run in the field. Governor Sam is the best option for a win from a runner on this side of the pond. He's also won four of his five career starts and may possess the fastest early speed.
I'll go with Aesterius (2) for the win and back it up with a quid or two on Governor Sam (10).
A European trifecta is possible boxing 2, 3,10,12 and add 7 for a superfecta box. I could flop the 3 with 7 for a 2,7,10,12 trifecta.
*****
The 7th race (post 6:25 pm ET) is the $2 million BC Juvenile fillies, Grade 1 for 2YOs at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. A bit of a toss up any horse might win this contest. Immersive (3) with Manny Franco aboard has won all three of her races including the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last month. It was an impressive run while stretching out to 1 1/16th miles in preparation of the Breeders' Cup. Also interesting are Non Compliant (7) with a Grade 2 win, American Bikini (9), Japanese bred and distance may be a question, and Scottish Lassie (10) a 9 length maiden win in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Aqueduct.
Let's go with (3) Immersive for the win and box him with (4) La Cara, (7) Non Complaint, (9) American Bikini and (10) Scottish Lassie.
*****
Back to the grass for the day's 8th race BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, a Grade 1 for 2YOs. It carries a $1 million purse. Post time is 7:05 pm (ET). There are four Europeans among the 14 starters on a two turn very tight turf course.
The obvious favorite is (1) Lake Victoria (IRE). She is untested at the mile distance and two turn racing, but she has royal turf breeding. She's won all four of her starts, the last was impressive over a soft turf at 6 furlongs. She's also run well at 7 furlongs indicating the distance will not be an issue. The question is the turns. This is often a new experience for young European horses who typically run sprints in a straight line.
She is stuck down along the rail so will she rush to the lead, settle into the large field and be clear for a relatively short stretch run?
I'm trying something different. (12) May Day Ready will get a perfect ride from international star jockey Frankie Dettori. This girl has the top closing speed in the race. Dettori will let her settle early, keep her a bit outside the tight field and put her in position to sweep by and grab the victory at the wire.
So, it's (12) May Day Ready on top with (4) Sythian who has enough tactical speed to be well placed early, (1) Lake Victoria, (2) Nitrogen and (9) Kilwin.
*****
Next up it's the day's 9th - BC Juvenile, Grade 1 at 1 /16 miles on the dirt. Purse $2 million. This race brings a lot of intrigue. Bob Baffert entered three in this race and none will be the favorite or probable winner. A lot of money exchanged hands at the sales for these runners. The Japanese come with inexperienced runners and Chad Brown is well positioned for a dirt win. Dirt with Chad? And there's even an Ohio bred in the race.
The favorite and likely winner will come from the outside 11 post - Chancer McPatrick, a Brown trainee. However I'm leaning inside with the (1) East Avenue. He has the top Beyer speed figure in the field, and won both his starts with room to spare.
I may try (1) East Avenue and (11) Chancer McPatrick over (4) Ferocious, (5) Jonathan's Way, (7) Gaming. A saver for this could be (6) Citizen Bull.
*****
We move back onto the grass for the 10th race - BC Juvenile Turf, Grade 1 at a mile for 2YOs. The purse is $1 million. Six of the 14 runners are European bred and throw in one from Japan. The Europeans appear strongest in this turf contest. I like (11) New Century (IRE) who has the best closing speed. He's already run once here in North America capturing the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine so he is comfortable with a narrow course and two turns. His rider Osin Murphy is one of Europe's top riders, this is important.
Another to give a serious look is (12) Aomori City (Fr) ridden by William Buick. He may surprise at a decent price. (13) Henri Matisse (IRE) also is interesting especially with the drop of nine pounds in the weight allowance.
I see the race as a toss up among those three. I'll throw in (5) Zulu Kingdom (IRE) for a European sweep. Give a look at (14) Tenacious Leader as a possibility.
There you have it for Friday's juvenile runners.
Next up is Saturday's 9 Breeders' Cup races.
Bona Venture Stables, LLC