Post by mick on Oct 30, 2024 15:45:09 GMT -5
Saturday's nine-race Breeders' Cup Championships gets underway at 3 p.m. (ET) at Del Mar Race Course in sunny southern California. The day promises to be a true world championship with 179 horses from nine different countries and five continents represented.
You'll need to jump back and forth among networks to watch all nine Breeders' Cup Championship races on television on Saturday. On the east coast coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. and runs until 3:30 p.m. on USA Network and Peacock streaming. It jumps to the national NBC Network and Peacock from 3:30 p.m. until 6 p.m. and finishes from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. on USA Network and Peacock.
First up is the $1 million BC Filly and Mare Sprint at 3 p.m. A Grade 1, 7 furlong test on the main dirt course. The race drew a field of 10 runners bringing with it a lot of intrigue. Think of this distance as a middle distance race in track and field. There are ample sprinters entered, can they hold on until the end? And a number of distance runners with the question can they catch the speed?
I see five potential winners. One Magic Philly (2) has a sprinters pedigree. She has three wins in four starts but all at the 6 1/2 furlongs and speed figures just a bit lower than a typical winner of this race. Vahva (4) has proven herself at the distance, has Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard. Question is can she take the lead from the start and hold on? Society (6) may be the favorite at post time. She has three 100+ beyers at the 7 furlong distance. She's traded wins with Vahva this year.
The final two (9) Ways and Means is very talented and her speed figures improve each race. Can she make it four in a row? Scylla (10) may have the best closing speed so if the pace is a burner she might pick up all the pieces and the win.
I'll take (6) Society for the win and probably back her up with Ways and Means (9). So 6/9 over 2,4,10 in a trifecta and box the 5 in a superfecta.
*****
Next at 3:41 p.m. (ET) is the Prevagen BC Turf Sprint, Grade 1 with a purse of $1 million for 3YOs and up. Let's take a look at the field, if I can remember what I was doing. Sorry, bad joke about the sponsor.
The top American based sprinter (9) Cogburn and his counter part in Europe (12) Bradsell are serious runners. I'm sticking with Cogburn for the win. He's won three straight sprints with 100+ Beyer speed figures. He may be fastest of the fast, take the lead and not look back. This is another very competitive race (10) Isivunguvungu (SAF) is another major contender. I can't wait to hear Larry Collmus try to say this name!
So (9) Coburn over (10) Isivunguvungu, (2) Motorious, (5) Ag Bullet, and (6) Star of Mystery.
*****
Moving to the 6th race, the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, Grade 1 $2 million run at 1 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares. Horses tend to get better with a bit of age. I'm not sure Thorpedo Anna (2) can be better than she already is. The winner of more than $2.8 million and only a 3YO she has run 9 times with 7 wins and 2 place finishes. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and the closest to a walk over that I've seen. She finished 2nd this year in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga beaten by a head while facing 8 quality male runners. Post time is 4:21 p.m. (ET).
I'm looking at (2) Thorpedo Anna on top with (6) Raging Sea, (9) Awesome Result, (1) Candied.
*****
Next up at 5:01 p.m. is the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf often dominated by the Europeans. Run at 1 1/2 miles on the grass it carries a $5 million purse. The race drew a field of millionaire runners from Japan, England, Ireland, France, Argentina and the United States. All very accomplished in their home countries. There is money to be made in this race if you find the winner.
Possible favorite is English bred (2) Emily Upjohn, with an impeccable breeding line. She has 6 consecutive 100+ Timeform ratings and is highly accomplished at this marathon distance. She'll be pressed by (3) Shahryar (JPN) whose already won more than $10 million and (11) Rebel's Romance (IRE) who has an impressive closing move.
I see (11) Rebel's Romance getting to the finish line first. I'll combine her in the exotics with (2) Emily Upjohn, (4) Luxemburg (IRE) (10) Wingspan (IRE). I'll consider adding (6) Far Bridge from the U.S. for a superfecta.
*****
It's time for the marquee event, the $7 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic. A test at 1 1/4 miles, a two turn run on the dirt. Post time is 5:41 p.m. The Japanese are determined to take home the big prize entering three in the Classic. I don't see it happening this year. (1) Forever Young (JPN) is the only one with a chance. He finished 3rd in this year's Kentucky Derby and does have a strong closing kick.
The horse everyone is talking about is 3YO City of Troy, bred in Kentucky, has run exclusively on turf in Europe. Saturday he'll try the dirt for the first time.The distance isn't a question, the dirt surface and two right hand turns may be concerns. His Timeform ratings are sterling. He's already earned more than $3 million winning six of seven career races. The main competition comes from Travers Stakes winner (9) Fierceness and runner-up (11) Sierra Leone. Both have run 100+ Beyers in their past two races. Japanese bred (6) Derma Sotogake, who finished 2nd in this race last year at 26-1 is back. He'll be the early pacesetter but probably won't be around at the finish.
A horse who could surprise is (2) Highland Falls, the recent winner of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Classic with a 104 Beyer rating.
I've decided to put my money on (9) Fierceness. I think he'll rate behind the early leaders while maintaining good striking distance. He'll move coming off the second turn and grab the win. With veteran Hall of Famer Johnny Velasquez aboard he is in good hands.
Fierceness over (1) Forever Young, (2) Highland Falls, (3) City of Troy,(11) Sierra Leone, over (5) Senor Buscador, (12) Arthur's Ride.
*****
The 9th race, The Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, carries a purse of $2 million and goes to the post at 6:25 p.m. (ET) with a field of 13. There isn't one horse that stands above the others in this race. It may be the closest to any horse can win that we find on the card.
Full Count Felicia (2) has the best last out Beyer at 101. If they let her go and she establishes an easy front running pace they may not catch her. She's been a wire-to-wire winner in two of her last three races. And her 101 Beyer speed rating isn't a fluke.
War Like Goddess (4), a relatively inexpensive $30,000 purchase, is the primary challenger. If she stays close early and doesn't give Full Count Felicia a break in the running, she could sweep by late for the win. Cinderella's Dream (GB) (3) may be the best of the European entries but don't over look (1) Beautiful Love (IRE) who may be primed for a big upset at 20-1 odds. Two others to consider (7) Content (IRE) and (10) Moira, a $3 million purchase has to step up a bit in this competition.
I'll stick with (2) Full Count Felicia on top with (4) War Like Goddess, (3) Cinderella's Dream, (1) Beautiful Love, and either (7) Content or (10) Moira.
*****
Shadows could be creeping across the track for the 10th race, the Sygames BC Sprint for 3YOs and up at 6 furlongs on the dirt. The purse is $2 million. Post time 7:05 p.m. (ET). Don't blink during this race or you may miss it. They will be flying Saturday night. The Flash hasn't anything over this field.
The Breeders' Cup record for the 6 furlong sprint is 1:07.08. It could be eclipsed this weekend. Four runners have recorded 1:08 in the past and almost all have run comfortably in 1:09, except the two Japanese entries at 1:10.
I like (3) Federal Judge for the win and (1) Raging Talent for a possible upset. (8) Straight No Chaser will explode out of the gate for the lead. He should clear 44 seconds for the half mile and Federal Judge will be looming along the rail. I think he'll clear the leader and hold off everyone else for the win. Raging Talent can very well do the same.
(3) Federal Judge over (1) Raging Torrent, (8) Straight No Chaser, (10) Mullikin.
*****
Race 11 - The FanDuel Breeders' Cup Turf Mile goes to post at 7:45 p.m. (ET). It's time for a big shocker - a long shot winner. European runners typically excel in this race but I'm going with either (9) Johannes or (10) Win for the Money. Both these runners ran 1:32 turf miles last time out. Why not?
I like (9) Johannes or (10) Win for the Money for the win. Followed by (4) Diego Velazquez (IRE), (6) Notable Speech (GB), (7) Porta Fortuna (IRE).
*****
Final race of the championships - Race 12 The Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Post time is 8:25 p.m. and it does not appear to be televised. Perhaps streamed on Peacock and FanDuel TV? This Grade 1 has a purse of $1 million.
This may be the weakest field of the championships. The win should come from the outside either (9) Domestic Product or (10) Muth. I probably will go with (9) Domestic Product over (10) Muth, (12) Mufasa (CHI), (14) Skippylongstocking.
Good luck and Happy Breeders' Cup weekend.
You'll need to jump back and forth among networks to watch all nine Breeders' Cup Championship races on television on Saturday. On the east coast coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. and runs until 3:30 p.m. on USA Network and Peacock streaming. It jumps to the national NBC Network and Peacock from 3:30 p.m. until 6 p.m. and finishes from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. on USA Network and Peacock.
First up is the $1 million BC Filly and Mare Sprint at 3 p.m. A Grade 1, 7 furlong test on the main dirt course. The race drew a field of 10 runners bringing with it a lot of intrigue. Think of this distance as a middle distance race in track and field. There are ample sprinters entered, can they hold on until the end? And a number of distance runners with the question can they catch the speed?
I see five potential winners. One Magic Philly (2) has a sprinters pedigree. She has three wins in four starts but all at the 6 1/2 furlongs and speed figures just a bit lower than a typical winner of this race. Vahva (4) has proven herself at the distance, has Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard. Question is can she take the lead from the start and hold on? Society (6) may be the favorite at post time. She has three 100+ beyers at the 7 furlong distance. She's traded wins with Vahva this year.
The final two (9) Ways and Means is very talented and her speed figures improve each race. Can she make it four in a row? Scylla (10) may have the best closing speed so if the pace is a burner she might pick up all the pieces and the win.
I'll take (6) Society for the win and probably back her up with Ways and Means (9). So 6/9 over 2,4,10 in a trifecta and box the 5 in a superfecta.
*****
Next at 3:41 p.m. (ET) is the Prevagen BC Turf Sprint, Grade 1 with a purse of $1 million for 3YOs and up. Let's take a look at the field, if I can remember what I was doing. Sorry, bad joke about the sponsor.
The top American based sprinter (9) Cogburn and his counter part in Europe (12) Bradsell are serious runners. I'm sticking with Cogburn for the win. He's won three straight sprints with 100+ Beyer speed figures. He may be fastest of the fast, take the lead and not look back. This is another very competitive race (10) Isivunguvungu (SAF) is another major contender. I can't wait to hear Larry Collmus try to say this name!
So (9) Coburn over (10) Isivunguvungu, (2) Motorious, (5) Ag Bullet, and (6) Star of Mystery.
*****
Moving to the 6th race, the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, Grade 1 $2 million run at 1 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for fillies and mares. Horses tend to get better with a bit of age. I'm not sure Thorpedo Anna (2) can be better than she already is. The winner of more than $2.8 million and only a 3YO she has run 9 times with 7 wins and 2 place finishes. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and the closest to a walk over that I've seen. She finished 2nd this year in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga beaten by a head while facing 8 quality male runners. Post time is 4:21 p.m. (ET).
I'm looking at (2) Thorpedo Anna on top with (6) Raging Sea, (9) Awesome Result, (1) Candied.
*****
Next up at 5:01 p.m. is the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf often dominated by the Europeans. Run at 1 1/2 miles on the grass it carries a $5 million purse. The race drew a field of millionaire runners from Japan, England, Ireland, France, Argentina and the United States. All very accomplished in their home countries. There is money to be made in this race if you find the winner.
Possible favorite is English bred (2) Emily Upjohn, with an impeccable breeding line. She has 6 consecutive 100+ Timeform ratings and is highly accomplished at this marathon distance. She'll be pressed by (3) Shahryar (JPN) whose already won more than $10 million and (11) Rebel's Romance (IRE) who has an impressive closing move.
I see (11) Rebel's Romance getting to the finish line first. I'll combine her in the exotics with (2) Emily Upjohn, (4) Luxemburg (IRE) (10) Wingspan (IRE). I'll consider adding (6) Far Bridge from the U.S. for a superfecta.
*****
It's time for the marquee event, the $7 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic. A test at 1 1/4 miles, a two turn run on the dirt. Post time is 5:41 p.m. The Japanese are determined to take home the big prize entering three in the Classic. I don't see it happening this year. (1) Forever Young (JPN) is the only one with a chance. He finished 3rd in this year's Kentucky Derby and does have a strong closing kick.
The horse everyone is talking about is 3YO City of Troy, bred in Kentucky, has run exclusively on turf in Europe. Saturday he'll try the dirt for the first time.The distance isn't a question, the dirt surface and two right hand turns may be concerns. His Timeform ratings are sterling. He's already earned more than $3 million winning six of seven career races. The main competition comes from Travers Stakes winner (9) Fierceness and runner-up (11) Sierra Leone. Both have run 100+ Beyers in their past two races. Japanese bred (6) Derma Sotogake, who finished 2nd in this race last year at 26-1 is back. He'll be the early pacesetter but probably won't be around at the finish.
A horse who could surprise is (2) Highland Falls, the recent winner of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Classic with a 104 Beyer rating.
I've decided to put my money on (9) Fierceness. I think he'll rate behind the early leaders while maintaining good striking distance. He'll move coming off the second turn and grab the win. With veteran Hall of Famer Johnny Velasquez aboard he is in good hands.
Fierceness over (1) Forever Young, (2) Highland Falls, (3) City of Troy,(11) Sierra Leone, over (5) Senor Buscador, (12) Arthur's Ride.
*****
The 9th race, The Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, carries a purse of $2 million and goes to the post at 6:25 p.m. (ET) with a field of 13. There isn't one horse that stands above the others in this race. It may be the closest to any horse can win that we find on the card.
Full Count Felicia (2) has the best last out Beyer at 101. If they let her go and she establishes an easy front running pace they may not catch her. She's been a wire-to-wire winner in two of her last three races. And her 101 Beyer speed rating isn't a fluke.
War Like Goddess (4), a relatively inexpensive $30,000 purchase, is the primary challenger. If she stays close early and doesn't give Full Count Felicia a break in the running, she could sweep by late for the win. Cinderella's Dream (GB) (3) may be the best of the European entries but don't over look (1) Beautiful Love (IRE) who may be primed for a big upset at 20-1 odds. Two others to consider (7) Content (IRE) and (10) Moira, a $3 million purchase has to step up a bit in this competition.
I'll stick with (2) Full Count Felicia on top with (4) War Like Goddess, (3) Cinderella's Dream, (1) Beautiful Love, and either (7) Content or (10) Moira.
*****
Shadows could be creeping across the track for the 10th race, the Sygames BC Sprint for 3YOs and up at 6 furlongs on the dirt. The purse is $2 million. Post time 7:05 p.m. (ET). Don't blink during this race or you may miss it. They will be flying Saturday night. The Flash hasn't anything over this field.
The Breeders' Cup record for the 6 furlong sprint is 1:07.08. It could be eclipsed this weekend. Four runners have recorded 1:08 in the past and almost all have run comfortably in 1:09, except the two Japanese entries at 1:10.
I like (3) Federal Judge for the win and (1) Raging Talent for a possible upset. (8) Straight No Chaser will explode out of the gate for the lead. He should clear 44 seconds for the half mile and Federal Judge will be looming along the rail. I think he'll clear the leader and hold off everyone else for the win. Raging Talent can very well do the same.
(3) Federal Judge over (1) Raging Torrent, (8) Straight No Chaser, (10) Mullikin.
*****
Race 11 - The FanDuel Breeders' Cup Turf Mile goes to post at 7:45 p.m. (ET). It's time for a big shocker - a long shot winner. European runners typically excel in this race but I'm going with either (9) Johannes or (10) Win for the Money. Both these runners ran 1:32 turf miles last time out. Why not?
I like (9) Johannes or (10) Win for the Money for the win. Followed by (4) Diego Velazquez (IRE), (6) Notable Speech (GB), (7) Porta Fortuna (IRE).
*****
Final race of the championships - Race 12 The Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Post time is 8:25 p.m. and it does not appear to be televised. Perhaps streamed on Peacock and FanDuel TV? This Grade 1 has a purse of $1 million.
This may be the weakest field of the championships. The win should come from the outside either (9) Domestic Product or (10) Muth. I probably will go with (9) Domestic Product over (10) Muth, (12) Mufasa (CHI), (14) Skippylongstocking.
Good luck and Happy Breeders' Cup weekend.
