Post by mick on Oct 28, 2005 8:12:21 GMT -5
Well, the Breeders Cup races will be run at Belmont Park on Saturday, so here are my early selections.
Breeders Cup Analysis
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Mile Juvenile Fillies (2 year-olds)
The first of 8 Breeders Cup races may be the most up-in-the-air of all the races. I will consider boxing four horses in a trifecta: 1 – Folklore; 2 – Original Spin; 5 – Knights Templar; and 6 – Adieu. I thought about the 10 – Wild Fit but decided against. Folklore is the probable favorite, improving speed figures, a Grade 1 win already and the winner of her last race by 14 lengths. I am considering the 5 – Knights Templar for the win. She also has improving speed ratings and won her last race, a Grade 3 stakes, at the same distance as this race, by more than 13 lengths. She is stepping up in class but 2 year-olds should be improving in each race and have yet to reach full potential. Knights Templar also has the best closing speed and this is the type of horse that wins at this distance.
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Mile BC Juvenile (2 year-olds)
The key to this race is the fact these are unpredictable 2 year-olds and most have yet to run true to past performance form or established a running pattern to predict form. This race sports the first of three races with heavy morning line favorites. The 4-race undefeated First Samurai, who cost its owners about $1 million as a yearling, is the favorite and deservedly so. His speed ratings have improved in each race and he’ll be ridden by the top jockey in the world, Jerry Bailey. There is a lot to like with this horse. He’s even been tested at a distance, winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park at a mile distance last time out.
The 9 – First Samurai is the logical and smart win bet. I am leaning toward trying to beat him with the 8 – Sorcerer’s Stone. This is a rapidly improving 2 year-old with improving speed ratings in three consecutive races. He is also undefeated and won his last race at a mile by more than 8 lengths in a time faster that First Samurai. My exotic bet will be a keyed trifecta: 8/9 with 8/9/10 (Henny Hughes), /11 (Private Vow), /12 (Stevie Wonderboy) with 10/11/12/3 (Leo). The owner of Leo is listed as Her Royal Highness Princess Haya of Jordan! Take a close look at how the track is playing on Saturday and watch for any late big money on Private Vow, he could be a big surprise in this race.
Race 5 – 1 ¼ mile F/M on the Turf. (Inner Turf)
This is a very interesting and competitive race. With more than 20 inches of rain on the Belmont Park turf course over the past 2 weeks, the grass will be very soft, yielding. In fact some trainers have described the course as a European bog – more like grass quicksand which will grab your foot and not let go. This would indicate that U.S.-based horses will find the surface too tiring and European horses will prosper.
I am not very confident with how this race will develop, but it does look like Intercontinental will go out on the lead, followed by a cavalry lineup of horses. I will consider taking a chance and put 13 - Ouija Board on top for the win. If he is able to handle the start from the far outside and avoid getting caught wide on the first turn, he will sweep into the lead late in the stretch. Be careful, there are two big questions in the race: if Intercontinental goes out and establishes an early lead and she isn’t challenged maybe she won’t be caught. Also, what about the Europeans and soft turf? Mona Lisa, the 11, is a sleeper for this race. So, maybe Ouija Board for the win and a $1 trifecta part wheel with Ouija and 8- Megahertz on top. It looks like this: 8/13 with 8/13/7- Wonder Again/2- Film Maker/10 - Intercontinental with 8/13/7/2/10/11- Mona Lisa.
Race 6 – BC Sprint – 6 furlongs
Lost in the Fog, Lost in the Fog, Lost in the Fog. End of story. I saw this horse run at Saratoga last August, he is awesome! I can’t see how he’s defeated Saturday, but you can’t make any money with him either. So, maybe $10 to win on the 6 – Wildcat Heir for the heck of it? A safer bet is $25 on Wildcat to place! Think about keying the 7 – Lost in the Fog on top in a trifecta with the 3-Silver Train/4-Battle Won/6-Wildcat Heir/8-Elusive Jazz with the 3/4/6/8.
Race 7 – BC Mile/Turf
Another race with another overwhelming favorite: 11 – Lerodesanimaux. His form would indicate he is nearly unbeatable, but it is a horse race, after all. He does show a likening to soft turf, so Leroidesanimaux should be on or near the pace from the beginning and has the staying power to lead wire to wire. He’ll be pressed by Sand Springs, but Sand’s form indicates that he’ll tire on soft turf and he should gradually fade from contention in deep stretch. Artie Schiller also doesn’t perform at his best on soft turf. While I think Lero is the best in the race, I will consider trying to beat him with the strongest closer and a horse whose breeding indicates he’ll love the soft turf. I will look to $10 on the 1- Host for the win and coupling 1/11 with 1/11/6-Funfair/7-Majors Cast/9-Singletary.
Race 8 – BC Distaff – 1 1/8 mile
Ashado will be the sentimental favorite and this is also wide open. I’ll select the 7 – Happy Ticket to win. She finished second last time out to Asahdo, but closed late losing by a half-length. I think she’ll be closer this time. So, 7- Happy Ticket to win and combine her with 3- Ashado; 2- Stellar Jayne; 13 – Capeside Lady and maybe 10 – In the Gold. The 6 – Healthy Addiction will set the pace in the race until they hit the stretch.
Race 9 – BC Turf 1 ½ mile
Now we really get to the big time. The race carries a $2 million purse and brings in a full field of quality racers. The turf is expected to be heavy to soft, so the natural play is the European horses. However, all 13 runners have a chance. I think the winner will come from either: 7 – Shakespeare, an undefeated winner of 5 races, but a horse reported to have foot problems (he did win his last turf race at 1 ½ miles but he’s never raced on this kind of boggy/heavy grass); 10- English Channel, a son of Smart Strike which indicates strong turf performance. (I once owned a Smart Strike filly, Striking Flames – she loved the grass but hated the mile distance.); 5 – Azamour, a European invader owned by the Aga Khan. He has the breeding, the experience and the pedigree to suggest he could be the newest European winner of this race. However, inside reports say he had a bad foot abscess a few weeks ago, will he be ready? The soft footing should be to his liking and will help his abscess problem; 6 – Ace, also from Europe. He’s the son of the champion, Danehill and he has a lot of experience at this distance and in million dollar Grade 1 events. So, Ace and Shakespeare have the best closing moves and have proven themselves at the distance – a toss up?
Race 10 – BC Classic 1 ¼ Mile
This is the big one, the $4 million Breeders Cup Classic. It also will be a very difficult race to handicap. The obvious favorite, and my emotional favorite, will be the 13 – Saint Liam. He has a lot going for him – top jockey in Jerry Bailey, an impressive win in his last race, the Grade 1 Woodward at Belmont, winning by 2 lengths, and a record of stalking the leaders, setting up for a powerful stretch run and winning. The Belmont course has the longest stretch of any race track in America, playing to strong closers. Oh, did I forget to mention that he is the son of Saint Ballado, who happens to be the grandfather of my 3 year-old colt, Saint Bonaventure! The biggest concern is he’s not run as far as 1 ¼ miles before.
What works against him? Well, he is in the 13 spot on the far outside and the race will start on a turn meaning Saint Liam will be forced wide and could find himself 10 lengths behind the leaders before the race goes a half-mile. Others have won from the extreme outside, so my emotional side says take the chance!
Saint Liam to win! His main competition will be Borrego, the 11. I reserve the option of a last minute change. I’ll combine these two with the 9 – Flower Alley and the 8 – Suave. The mystery horse in this race is the 4, Oratorio from Ireland. He’s never run on dirt but his pedigree indicates he’ll be successful and he has demonstrated he can easily handle the distance. I may have to find a place for him in my bets and maybe look at a long shot extra win ticket with Oratorio.
Good Luck.
Breeders Cup Analysis
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Mile Juvenile Fillies (2 year-olds)
The first of 8 Breeders Cup races may be the most up-in-the-air of all the races. I will consider boxing four horses in a trifecta: 1 – Folklore; 2 – Original Spin; 5 – Knights Templar; and 6 – Adieu. I thought about the 10 – Wild Fit but decided against. Folklore is the probable favorite, improving speed figures, a Grade 1 win already and the winner of her last race by 14 lengths. I am considering the 5 – Knights Templar for the win. She also has improving speed ratings and won her last race, a Grade 3 stakes, at the same distance as this race, by more than 13 lengths. She is stepping up in class but 2 year-olds should be improving in each race and have yet to reach full potential. Knights Templar also has the best closing speed and this is the type of horse that wins at this distance.
Race 4 – 1 1/16 Mile BC Juvenile (2 year-olds)
The key to this race is the fact these are unpredictable 2 year-olds and most have yet to run true to past performance form or established a running pattern to predict form. This race sports the first of three races with heavy morning line favorites. The 4-race undefeated First Samurai, who cost its owners about $1 million as a yearling, is the favorite and deservedly so. His speed ratings have improved in each race and he’ll be ridden by the top jockey in the world, Jerry Bailey. There is a lot to like with this horse. He’s even been tested at a distance, winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park at a mile distance last time out.
The 9 – First Samurai is the logical and smart win bet. I am leaning toward trying to beat him with the 8 – Sorcerer’s Stone. This is a rapidly improving 2 year-old with improving speed ratings in three consecutive races. He is also undefeated and won his last race at a mile by more than 8 lengths in a time faster that First Samurai. My exotic bet will be a keyed trifecta: 8/9 with 8/9/10 (Henny Hughes), /11 (Private Vow), /12 (Stevie Wonderboy) with 10/11/12/3 (Leo). The owner of Leo is listed as Her Royal Highness Princess Haya of Jordan! Take a close look at how the track is playing on Saturday and watch for any late big money on Private Vow, he could be a big surprise in this race.
Race 5 – 1 ¼ mile F/M on the Turf. (Inner Turf)
This is a very interesting and competitive race. With more than 20 inches of rain on the Belmont Park turf course over the past 2 weeks, the grass will be very soft, yielding. In fact some trainers have described the course as a European bog – more like grass quicksand which will grab your foot and not let go. This would indicate that U.S.-based horses will find the surface too tiring and European horses will prosper.
I am not very confident with how this race will develop, but it does look like Intercontinental will go out on the lead, followed by a cavalry lineup of horses. I will consider taking a chance and put 13 - Ouija Board on top for the win. If he is able to handle the start from the far outside and avoid getting caught wide on the first turn, he will sweep into the lead late in the stretch. Be careful, there are two big questions in the race: if Intercontinental goes out and establishes an early lead and she isn’t challenged maybe she won’t be caught. Also, what about the Europeans and soft turf? Mona Lisa, the 11, is a sleeper for this race. So, maybe Ouija Board for the win and a $1 trifecta part wheel with Ouija and 8- Megahertz on top. It looks like this: 8/13 with 8/13/7- Wonder Again/2- Film Maker/10 - Intercontinental with 8/13/7/2/10/11- Mona Lisa.
Race 6 – BC Sprint – 6 furlongs
Lost in the Fog, Lost in the Fog, Lost in the Fog. End of story. I saw this horse run at Saratoga last August, he is awesome! I can’t see how he’s defeated Saturday, but you can’t make any money with him either. So, maybe $10 to win on the 6 – Wildcat Heir for the heck of it? A safer bet is $25 on Wildcat to place! Think about keying the 7 – Lost in the Fog on top in a trifecta with the 3-Silver Train/4-Battle Won/6-Wildcat Heir/8-Elusive Jazz with the 3/4/6/8.
Race 7 – BC Mile/Turf
Another race with another overwhelming favorite: 11 – Lerodesanimaux. His form would indicate he is nearly unbeatable, but it is a horse race, after all. He does show a likening to soft turf, so Leroidesanimaux should be on or near the pace from the beginning and has the staying power to lead wire to wire. He’ll be pressed by Sand Springs, but Sand’s form indicates that he’ll tire on soft turf and he should gradually fade from contention in deep stretch. Artie Schiller also doesn’t perform at his best on soft turf. While I think Lero is the best in the race, I will consider trying to beat him with the strongest closer and a horse whose breeding indicates he’ll love the soft turf. I will look to $10 on the 1- Host for the win and coupling 1/11 with 1/11/6-Funfair/7-Majors Cast/9-Singletary.
Race 8 – BC Distaff – 1 1/8 mile
Ashado will be the sentimental favorite and this is also wide open. I’ll select the 7 – Happy Ticket to win. She finished second last time out to Asahdo, but closed late losing by a half-length. I think she’ll be closer this time. So, 7- Happy Ticket to win and combine her with 3- Ashado; 2- Stellar Jayne; 13 – Capeside Lady and maybe 10 – In the Gold. The 6 – Healthy Addiction will set the pace in the race until they hit the stretch.
Race 9 – BC Turf 1 ½ mile
Now we really get to the big time. The race carries a $2 million purse and brings in a full field of quality racers. The turf is expected to be heavy to soft, so the natural play is the European horses. However, all 13 runners have a chance. I think the winner will come from either: 7 – Shakespeare, an undefeated winner of 5 races, but a horse reported to have foot problems (he did win his last turf race at 1 ½ miles but he’s never raced on this kind of boggy/heavy grass); 10- English Channel, a son of Smart Strike which indicates strong turf performance. (I once owned a Smart Strike filly, Striking Flames – she loved the grass but hated the mile distance.); 5 – Azamour, a European invader owned by the Aga Khan. He has the breeding, the experience and the pedigree to suggest he could be the newest European winner of this race. However, inside reports say he had a bad foot abscess a few weeks ago, will he be ready? The soft footing should be to his liking and will help his abscess problem; 6 – Ace, also from Europe. He’s the son of the champion, Danehill and he has a lot of experience at this distance and in million dollar Grade 1 events. So, Ace and Shakespeare have the best closing moves and have proven themselves at the distance – a toss up?
Race 10 – BC Classic 1 ¼ Mile
This is the big one, the $4 million Breeders Cup Classic. It also will be a very difficult race to handicap. The obvious favorite, and my emotional favorite, will be the 13 – Saint Liam. He has a lot going for him – top jockey in Jerry Bailey, an impressive win in his last race, the Grade 1 Woodward at Belmont, winning by 2 lengths, and a record of stalking the leaders, setting up for a powerful stretch run and winning. The Belmont course has the longest stretch of any race track in America, playing to strong closers. Oh, did I forget to mention that he is the son of Saint Ballado, who happens to be the grandfather of my 3 year-old colt, Saint Bonaventure! The biggest concern is he’s not run as far as 1 ¼ miles before.
What works against him? Well, he is in the 13 spot on the far outside and the race will start on a turn meaning Saint Liam will be forced wide and could find himself 10 lengths behind the leaders before the race goes a half-mile. Others have won from the extreme outside, so my emotional side says take the chance!
Saint Liam to win! His main competition will be Borrego, the 11. I reserve the option of a last minute change. I’ll combine these two with the 9 – Flower Alley and the 8 – Suave. The mystery horse in this race is the 4, Oratorio from Ireland. He’s never run on dirt but his pedigree indicates he’ll be successful and he has demonstrated he can easily handle the distance. I may have to find a place for him in my bets and maybe look at a long shot extra win ticket with Oratorio.
Good Luck.