Facts say Bonnies finish bottom of A-10

[Chuck]

College basketball expert Jon Rothstein predicts the Bonnies will finish 12th (3rd from bottom) in the A-10.If you check out the following facts (players lost and incoming players)you can see why Rothstein predicts the Bonnies at the bottom of A-10.

--Bonnies return just 49.6% of its scoring.
There are only 4 teams (St. Louis, St. Joes, LaSalle and G. Mason) that lost more scoring than the Bonnies. Bonnies lose 3 starters with Matthew and Charlon being the team's leading scorers and Marquise being team's 2nd leading rebounder and 5th leading scorer.

--Bonnies incoming class is ranked at the bottom.
We are excited about the Bonnies incoming class, but NERR (they spend a lot of time covering the A-10) ranks the Bonnies incoming class in the bottom tier of A-10. By the way VCU has ESPN's 14th best recruiting class in the nation, which has 3 top 100 players.

--LumsdnA10 effect
Poster LumsdnA10 predicted the Bonnies would return to the bottom of the A-10 after the graduation of Andrew Nicholson. He pointed out Schmidt failed to recruit A-10 quality players. By the way A-10 coaches and college basketball experts agreed with LumsdnA10. In fact Rothstein predicted the Bonnies would finish dead last for this past season. Year after Nicholson Bonnies finished with a 7-9 A-10 record. This being a season when A-10 sent 5 teams to NCAA Tournament (3rd most of any conference) and had a RPI higher than SEC. Last year Bonnies lost 60% of its scoring with graduation of Conger, Mosley and Johnson. Bonnies go to the semifinals of A-10 Tournament and finish with just 2 wins less than Andrew's NCAA team.

--We know 2 things the experts do not know.
1) Schmidt and his staff continue to find hidden gems like Andrew, Conger, Mosley and etc. These are 1 star players according to the recruiting web sites, but have proven to be top tier A-10 players. I'm sure Youssou, Dion and others will step up and replace graduated stars, just like Conger, Mosley, Matthew, Charlon and others have done before them.
2)Schmidt and his staff have proven they can develop players. Best example for me was Michael Lee, who was a player that was regressing prior to Schmidt's arrival. In just 1 year with Schmidt, Lee developed into one of the better players in the A-10.

Actually if you read the links from the bottom you will notice the experts are starting to take notice of Schmidt's success. There are comments like "Schmidt knows he’s not going to deliver the most celebrated recruiting classes in the Atlantic 10, but instead, what he’s proven time and time again is that he can put together strategic recruiting classes full of guys who can develop into successful players within his program." I'm sure there will be other experts like Rothstein, who will predict the Bonnies will finish near the bottom of A-10, but we know better.


www.a10talk.com/forums/threads/jon-rothstein-early-projections-for-the-atlantic-10-in-2014-15.6512/
www.coxhub.com/articles/atlantic-10-by-the-numbers-percentage-returns-team-by-team?utm_content=6778675&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
www.coxhub.com/articles/atlantic-10-ranking-the-incoming-classes
www.vcuathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2013-14/releases/20140417hwpqcq

[tastylicks]

There's only one fact in their arguments : the losing of 49% of their scoring. The part about the recruiting class is based on opinions...

Also, there might not be a more irrelevant statistic out there than when analysts talk about a team "losing blank% of scoring" or a team "losing so-and-so# of their top so-and-so scorers". That fails to take into account SO much. For starters, how efficient were those scorers in the first place? how efficient are the returners? Every team is going to score baskets every year whether they are winning or not and every team is going to graduate and lose scorers every year. It's lazy and dumb analysis to stop there. The Bonnies will score plenty of baskets this year and replace the scoring of those 3 guys either way! The question should be can they replace the efficiency of those players.

Overlooked was how efficient Gathers was shooting the ball.. He didn't shoot as much as Wright but when he did he shot efficiently. He really stepped up his shot last year. Also, Dion Wright was very efficient with the ball down low. Again, not as a top option. Without even looking at the newcomers (and posley is supposedly a scorer) they have the ability to replace a lot of what they lost offensively right there.

I think they will miss Kloof's defense and rhythm on the offensive end mostly, and they will miss Simmons' efficiency on the offensive end, big time. But they don't have to try to replace them. they can win in other ways. No Kloof will mean less dribbling, because that was a strength of his game, but less dribbling and more passing can be a good thing.

The key is N'Doye's development. He can be inconsistent. I guess that's an understatement.There were times he out-shined everyone, dominated even and looked the part of an all A-10 center last year and there were times he struggled so much he was hurting the team: sometimes this spectrum would occur over the course of one game! If he can play more consistently like the first scenario, or even make the step up to the All-A-10 player he can be, then this team will surprise. I'm not worried about the scoring they lost.

[Copenhagen]

Which Game in Brooklyn last March did N'Doye not only look like all A10 but All American?
Even if it was only half ....

[agoo]

Hasn't this been true since Schmidt showed up, with the exception of Nicholson's junior and senior year?

[brownindian11]

I think ndoye was playing awesome against lasalle. Same game he picked a foolish foul and a technical I believe. Ndoye is going to have a really good year.

[class70]

We all remember the article Forbes did a while back that showed that Schmidt was the best dollar-for-dollar deal in the NCAA. It's time for a follow-on that would calculate the best use of recruiting talent: figure out the best beta from the relationship between recruiting stars signed and RPI rating. For example, the teams that sign all 4 and 5-star recruits are supposed to finish high in the standings, but poor little SBU with a bunch of no-names is not supposed to end up in the top 100 like we did this past year.

[jh]

Jul 24, 2014 9:27:25 GMT -5 Chuck said:

College basketball expert Jon Rothstein predicts the Bonnies will finish 12th (3rd from bottom) in the A-10.If you check out the following facts (players lost and incoming players)you can see why Rothstein predicts the Bonnies at the bottom of A-10.

--Bonnies return just 49.6% of its scoring.
There are only 4 teams (St. Louis, St. Joes, LaSalle and G. Mason) that lost more scoring than the Bonnies. Bonnies lose 3 starters with Matthew and Charlon being the team's leading scorers and Marquise being team's 2nd leading rebounder and 5th leading scorer.

--Bonnies incoming class is ranked at the bottom.
We are excited about the Bonnies incoming class, but NERR (they spend a lot of time covering the A-10) ranks the Bonnies incoming class in the bottom tier of A-10. By the way VCU has ESPN's 14th best recruiting class in the nation, which has 3 top 100 players.

--LumsdnA10 effect
Poster LumsdnA10 predicted the Bonnies would return to the bottom of the A-10 after the graduation of Andrew Nicholson. He pointed out Schmidt failed to recruit A-10 quality players. By the way A-10 coaches and college basketball experts agreed with LumsdnA10. In fact Rothstein predicted the Bonnies would finish dead last for this past season. Year after Nicholson Bonnies finished with a 7-9 A-10 record. This being a season when A-10 sent 5 teams to NCAA Tournament (3rd most of any conference) and had a RPI higher than SEC. Last year Bonnies lost 60% of its scoring with graduation of Conger, Mosley and Johnson. Bonnies go to the semifinals of A-10 Tournament and finish with just 2 wins less than Andrew's NCAA team.

--We know 2 things the experts do not know.
1) Schmidt and his staff continue to find hidden gems like Andrew, Conger, Mosley and etc. These are 1 star players according to the recruiting web sites, but have proven to be top tier A-10 players. I'm sure Youssou, Dion and others will step up and replace graduated stars, just like Conger, Mosley, Matthew, Charlon and others have done before them.
2)Schmidt and his staff have proven they can develop players. Best example for me was Michael Lee, who was a player that was regressing prior to Schmidt's arrival. In just 1 year with Schmidt, Lee developed into one of the better players in the A-10.

Actually if you read the links from the bottom you will notice the experts are starting to take notice of Schmidt's success. There are comments like "Schmidt knows he’s not going to deliver the most celebrated recruiting classes in the Atlantic 10, but instead, what he’s proven time and time again is that he can put together strategic recruiting classes full of guys who can develop into successful players within his program." I'm sure there will be other experts like Rothstein, who will predict the Bonnies will finish near the bottom of A-10, but we know better.


www.a10talk.com/forums/threads/jon-rothstein-early-projections-for-the-atlantic-10-in-2014-15.6512/
www.coxhub.com/articles/atlantic-10-by-the-numbers-percentage-returns-team-by-team?utm_content=6778675&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
www.coxhub.com/articles/atlantic-10-ranking-the-incoming-classes
www.vcuathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2013-14/releases/20140417hwpqcq

Push back - blast him on his twitter - remind him of his errors in March !!! No way we put up with his garbage

[bigdobber]

Jon Rothstein is a sports journalist who evaluates teams from a laptop. Tough to take him seriously.

[Pinnum]

Everything he says is true, given the information he has. He however is not able to evaluate each player independently like Schmidt must do in order to determine who to spend the time going after and who to offer a scholarship.

This is the reason I think SBU should always look for head coaches from lower tier programs rather than assistants from comparable or higher level programs. A coach that performs above their conference and resources level is what SBU needs and it is what they now have with Schmidt and Crowley.

Nothing to be upset about. SBU lands the talented recruits that are over looked. This is part of the reason SBU lands them.

The best thing would be in a few years for these pre-season lookouts to say 'Another SBU class with guys that weren't recruited by the top programs but we have learned you never count out the Bonnies and we wouldn't be surprised if they are dancing in march.'

Nothing to do now but to win some games.

[gdub2009]

Pinnum, the reason why Rothstein bugs the crap out of me is bc he picks Bonas in the bottom tier every year. Yes by looking at what we lost and the recruiting stars we have coming in he should pick us in the bottom tier. There is one problem though, this is the league he gets payed to follow. He follows pretty much every team in this conference but us. Check it out on twitter sometime. It is a miracle if he mentions us. Would you pick the Oakland A's last in the AL West every year bc you don't know the players on their team. No you wouldn't bc you know the A's will somehow win the division or compete every year. The A's have a solid organization that knows how to win. The Bonnies haven't been under 6-10 in the conference since 07-08. The Bonnies usually finish in the middle of the pack, and every once in a while in the top tier. Ummmm let's pick um last... I don't care if other outlets pick us in the bottom tier, but Rothstein prides himself in his A10 knowledge.

[Chuck]

Jul 25, 2014 7:26:05 GMT -5 Pinnum said:

Everything he says is true, given the information he has. He however is not able to evaluate each player independently like Schmidt must do in order to determine who to spend the time going after and who to offer a scholarship.

This is the reason I think SBU should always look for head coaches from lower tier programs rather than assistants from comparable or higher level programs. A coach that performs above their conference and resources level is what SBU needs and it is what they now have with Schmidt and Crowley.

Absolutely agree with the above from Pinnum. Any outsider would put the Bonnies at the bottom if they take a look at the Bonnies losses (3 starters with top 2 leading scorers) and lowly ranked incoming class. Not only have we seen this from the experts, but also the A-10 coaches themselves during A-10 media day. I'm certain A-10 media day will again forecast the Bonnies to finish somewhere near the bottom. What all this proves is Schmidt being one of the best coaches in the A-10.

Not only does outsiders underestimate Schmidt but our very own Vinny Pezzimenti does the same. Vinny has an article in the Olean Times Herald "does college enrollment go hand-in-hand with athletic success?" The movers and shakers at St. Bonaventure should know this well by now, as its sports programs often perform beyond expectation in the Atlantic 10, despite consistently having the conference’s smallest athletics budget. Men’s basketball at St. Bonaventure, unequivocally, is a crucial asset to the university and its well- being. It just may not be as significant as some believe it to be."

Can't help but wonder what type of seasons the Bonnies would have if Schmidt were to leave the Bonnies. I highly doubt the Bonnies would continue their successes without Schmidt. I believe it is more of a case of Schmidt overcoming the lowest basketball budget in the A-10 rather than the basketball budget having little effect.

www.oleantimesherald.com/sports/article_b93943b2-0603-11e4-87fc-001a4bcf887a.html

[res]

Jul 25, 2014 9:12:35 GMT -5 Chuck said:

Not only does outsiders underestimate Schmidt but our very own Vinny Pezzimenti does the same.

Chuck, I must be missing something. I don't see anything in the article that indicates that Vinny is underestimating Schmidt's abilities in any way. In fact, he alludes to Bona's success on the court despite having the smallest budget in the A10. He does debunk the notion that athletic success has a substantial, long-term effect on either the quality or quantity of students that attend St. Bonaventure or any other university -- the so-called "Flutie Effect".

I guess I just don't see how this reflects on Schmidt.

[ceharv]

So? What value do predictions play? Are opponents given a 10 point lead to start the game if they are predicted to finish higher? No. - It's just loose talk to pass time or to sell ad-space. No matter the prediction, the games are going to be played and then we'll see how the Bonnies do, so no use in getting upset about this guy's or anyone's thoughts at this time of year. We'll get there soon.Signed, Captain Obvious

[class70]

I'll take the possibly Panglossian view here. If the Bonnies do as well as I and most of the other denizens here expect, all of the media talking heads will have to compensate by talking up the big surprise, and will be doing it at a time when fans are actually paying attention.

[BonaFan]

Jul 25, 2014 9:12:35 GMT -5 Chuck said:

Jul 25, 2014 7:26:05 GMT -5 Pinnum said:

Everything he says is true, given the information he has. He however is not able to evaluate each player independently like Schmidt must do in order to determine who to spend the time going after and who to offer a scholarship.

This is the reason I think SBU should always look for head coaches from lower tier programs rather than assistants from comparable or higher level programs. A coach that performs above their conference and resources level is what SBU needs and it is what they now have with Schmidt and Crowley.

Absolutely agree with the above from Pinnum. Any outsider would put the Bonnies at the bottom if they take a look at the Bonnies losses (3 starters with top 2 leading scorers) and lowly ranked incoming class. Not only have we seen this from the experts, but also the A-10 coaches themselves during A-10 media day. I'm certain A-10 media day will again forecast the Bonnies to finish somewhere near the bottom. What all this proves is Schmidt being one of the best coaches in the A-10.

Not only does outsiders underestimate Schmidt but our very own Vinny Pezzimenti does the same. Vinny has an article in the Olean Times Herald "does college enrollment go hand-in-hand with athletic success?" The movers and shakers at St. Bonaventure should know this well by now, as its sports programs often perform beyond expectation in the Atlantic 10, despite consistently having the conference’s smallest athletics budget. Men’s basketball at St. Bonaventure, unequivocally, is a crucial asset to the university and its well- being. It just may not be as significant as some believe it to be."

Can't help but wonder what type of seasons the Bonnies would have if Schmidt were to leave the Bonnies. I highly doubt the Bonnies would continue their successes without Schmidt. I believe it is more of a case of Schmidt overcoming the lowest basketball budget in the A-10 rather than the basketball budget having little effect.

www.oleantimesherald.com/sports/article_b93943b2-0603-11e4-87fc-001a4bcf887a.html

Chuck, I'm sorry that was the way you interpreted the article.

IMHO, Schmidt does more with less than any coach in the Atlantic 10. He has a great ability to 1) identify under-the-radar recruits and 2) develop those recruits into solid A-10 players. It is a given that Schmidt's teams will always win 7 or more league games and 15 or more overall, regardless of roster makeup.

I believe SBU is building toward an NIT/NCAA team in the next 2-3 years, perhaps this coming season (depending on the continued development of Ndoye).