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Post by bonawolf02 on Mar 8, 2016 10:30:18 GMT -5
I wish I had a fast forward button for this week to 9 p.m. on Friday. I think we should be in regardless of whether or not we win on Friday. However, one thing that struck me with terror in the middle of the night after watching all of the conference championships upsets was what the committee would do if a Rhode Island or Fordam or something other team in the A-10 other than the Bonnies, VCU, Dayton, or St. Joes won the A-10 tourney. I don't see the committee giving the A-10 5 teams. All the more reason to win the thing or at least get to the semi-finals in Brooklyn. Should be interesting to see how much Lunardi drops us down today. My in the middle of the night terror is Duquesne or La Salle beating Davidson and the Bonnies unfathomably losing to them. While unlikely A loss to Duquesne or La Salle and VCU run in the tourney will put a huge dent in Bona's chances. This among other reasons is why I want Davidson. Win or lose I want it against Davidson, not Duquesne or La Salle. If this team was going to lose to an inferior team at this stage in the season it would've happened at St. Louis. The Bonnies controlled that game comfortably on the road. I am not concerned about this teams performance moving forward...they will not beat themselves as they did a couple times earlier in the season. They are locked in. If they do lose down the road, it will be to a better team - the Bonnies are executing at a high level. Go Bonas! |
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Post by Bonnies76 on Mar 8, 2016 10:34:23 GMT -5
Of course if Duquesne or Lasalle wants to take Davidson to two or three overtimes before they lose to them, That would be alright  |
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Post by thebonafan08 on Mar 8, 2016 10:36:25 GMT -5
I agree I am just stating what still lurks in the back of my mind amongst all these posts about us already being a "lock".
I mostly want Davidson because a win against them boosts our resume more than Duq/LaSalle.
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Post by kcSBU03 on Mar 8, 2016 11:27:59 GMT -5
I agree I am just stating what still lurks in the back of my mind amongst all these posts about us already being a "lock". I mostly want Davidson because a win against them boosts our resume more than Duq/LaSalle. Im with you. A loss to Davidson would not kill us but a loss to either Duq or La Salle would. We are not a lock but I think we are pretty safe. We dont need any more nights like last night though. That bubble cant shrink too much more before it gets close to us. We are all St Mary's fans tonight! |
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Post by bigdobber on Mar 8, 2016 13:05:02 GMT -5
I just don't get Lunardi putting us as the play in game with Joes being higher seeded. We will take care of business Friday. If Lasalle or Duquesne upsets Davidson the Bonnie's will run either out of the gym particularly in the 2nd half. 3 days in a row is a big disadvantage. Davidson isn't fast enough for us and Idris will shut the guard who is their star into a bad shooting match. That will lock up the bid. Saturdays matchup will probably be VCU and that is a tough matchup. If we get by them the Bonnies will run either Dayton or Joes out of the gym. Staying Positive!
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JC
Junior Member
Posts: 383
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Post by JC on Mar 8, 2016 13:15:48 GMT -5
bigdobber,
Wichita St ahead of both Bona and St. Joes is more egregious. If we are going by the resume, there is no debate. What needs to be talked about, loudly in my opinion, is whether the game has changed.
Palm, like DanceCard, is following the historical criteria. According to history, we are a stone cold lock. The only justification for Lunardi's bracket is the BPI/Ken Pom numbers. This needs to be discussed. Is the NCAA prepared to follow the trendy analytics, or go by the resume method. If it's the former, then big wins really don't matter anymore. Seth Davis, so far, is the only one I see pointing this out. Even there, he's not discussing the long term consequences if the selection committee makes this shift.
People who have any voice at all should be making these points on social and print media. We've got some good Bona alumns who, while not exactly the powers that be, still have a social media profile that might get people talking. Public perception matters. I do not believe the committee lives underground.
#dontletthemscrewus
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Post by bigdobber on Mar 8, 2016 13:45:14 GMT -5
Kenpom is an evaluation service for gamblers. Why on earth would the NCAA get aligned with that. I think the traditional metrics will apply. Joe Lunardi is middle of the pack from what I read. It almost looks like he and Martelli are figuring things out collectively in a back room at the Hagen gym. Reeks of bias.
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Post by bona98 on Mar 8, 2016 14:44:26 GMT -5
Love that Jerry Palm has us and Dayton as locks and St. Joe's as "probably in." Thanks for being the yin to Lunardi's yang.
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Post by homersbu on Mar 8, 2016 14:53:56 GMT -5
Just in case you think ESPN is pure evil. From today's Bubble Watch (and I think this is spot-on):
St Bonaventure [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 28, SOS: 90] Saturday's win at lowly Saint Louis may not have sealed St. Bonaventure's bid, but it absolutely sealed the Bonnies' past six weeks as the best any team has had this side of Madison, Wisconsin. Mark Schmidt's team finished the regular season with a 10-1 streak. Even better? That run comprised wins at Dayton and Saint Joe's. The overall resume remains very bubbly -- this group didn't achieve much outside of its own league, that's for sure -- but it requires a genuine leap of imagination to assume the committee's deliberations won't broach the Bonnies' supreme turnaround and their ascendant play at the quote-unquote perfect time. As long as their first A-10 tourney opponent is Davidson (and not Duquesne or La Salle) it's hard to see how they could sustain enough damage to fall out of the field.
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Post by tastylicks on Mar 8, 2016 14:58:07 GMT -5
Just in case you think ESPN is pure evil. From today's Bubble Watch (and I think this is spot-on): St Bonaventure [22-7 (14-4), RPI: 28, SOS: 90] Saturday's win at lowly Saint Louis may not have sealed St. Bonaventure's bid, but it absolutely sealed the Bonnies' past six weeks as the best any team has had this side of Madison, Wisconsin. Mark Schmidt's team finished the regular season with a 10-1 streak. Even better? That run comprised wins at Dayton and Saint Joe's. The overall resume remains very bubbly -- this group didn't achieve much outside of its own league, that's for sure -- but it requires a genuine leap of imagination to assume the committee's deliberations won't broach the Bonnies' supreme turnaround and their ascendant play at the quote-unquote perfect time. As long as their first A-10 tourney opponent is Davidson (and not Duquesne or La Salle) it's hard to see how they could sustain enough damage to fall out of the field. the best part of that is that they didnt give us the "kiss of death" a.k.a. moved us to the :"lock" category. They did that to Dayton and Dayton proceeded to start losing like alot of teams he gave the kiss of death too. I might be too superstitious, yes, but we're on the bubble here so every little bit of mojo is important to me haha |
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Post by class70 on Mar 8, 2016 15:25:21 GMT -5
Bubble is OK for PR. Bona gets mentioned more times in national media every day than we normally do in a season. Everybody knows who is first four in and out, but nobody talks about who is a 9-seed.
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Post by homersbu on Mar 8, 2016 17:33:37 GMT -5
Ken Pomeroy needs to shove his slide rule you know where and perhaps actually watch a basketball game. This from his A-10 Tourney preview:
"It appears that there will be more urgency for both VCU and St. Bonaventure, whose NCAA tournament bids may depend on winning three games in Brooklyn. It’s hard to say if urgency is worth anything. Even if it isn’t, VCU is the favorite, but with only little more than a one-in-four chance, this event is one of the more wide open tournaments of championship week."
That's freaking insanity. Three games? NO WINS should be enough (barring a loss to LaSalle or Duquesne) but winning the quarters absolutely should guarantee a spot. And ditto for VCU.
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Post by orangehater on Mar 8, 2016 17:45:18 GMT -5
How do you give a team an 8 seed and then say they need to win out? Is this real?
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Post by homersbu on Mar 8, 2016 18:02:42 GMT -5
orangehater, I think you're thinking of Jerry Palm, who has us an 8 seed and a lock with Dayton on cbssports.com Ken Pomeroy has his own proprietary metric, and has us wallowing at No. 77. Just look at some of the teams ahead of us. It's lunacy. kenpom.com/ |
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Post by agoo on Mar 8, 2016 18:21:08 GMT -5
How do you give a team an 8 seed and then say they need to win out? Is this real? Nearly half the field is conference champs, so there are a lot of not so good teams that get auto-bids in. An 8-12 seed is probably no guarantee of making it and could get dropped if there are too many upsets. |
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