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Post by Sipowicz on Jan 18, 2024 8:55:55 GMT -5
BTW, the BONNIES next opponent George Mason stays at 84.
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Post by bigcat on Jan 19, 2024 21:17:54 GMT -5
Taking a look at the A10 and Mountain West…
The Net numbers say the Mountain West is head and shoulders above the A10. The diff in Net is crazy at the top of the leagues as shown below.
The Net disparity is due primarily to how many more Q1 opportunities and wins MWC teams have … and how few for the A10. Not sure the talent gap is as big as the Net numbers indicate. See comparisons below. Getting more Q1 opportunities and wins is the A10’s biggest challenge each year… not just the Bonnies’ issue.
Team/net/record/Q1 wins
San Diego State, 20, 15-3 (2 Q1 wins)
Dayton 19, 14-2 (3 Q1 wins)
Colo St, 23, 14-3 (2)
Richmond, 82, 12-5 (0)
Utah St, 25, 16-2 (2)
Bonnies, 75, 11-5 (0)
New Mex, 27, 15-3 (2, both in MWC games)
St Joe’s, 80, 11-6 (1)
Nevada, 45, 15-3 (1)
G.Mason, 85, 13-5 (0)
Boise, 52, 12-5 (3)
Loyola, 125, 11-6 (0)
UNLV, 83, 9-7 (3, two in MWC)
GW, 136, 13-3 (0)
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Post by BONA82.5 on Jan 20, 2024 8:00:06 GMT -5
Good INFO Bigcat - Lack of Q1 wins are definitely a key factor driving the A10's poor NET Rankings, but it's the Q3 & Q4 losses that are just as devastating ...
Mountain West TOP five Teams
SD State NET 20 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses
Colorado St. NET 23 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses
Utah St. NET 25 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses
New Mexico NET 27 - NO Q3-Q4 losses
Nevada NET 45 - NO Q3-Q4 losses
A10 TOP five Teams
DAYTON NET 19 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses
ST. BONA NET 75 - 1 Q2 - 2 Q4 losses
ST. JOES NET 80 - 3 Q3 - 1 Q4 losses
RICHMOND NET 82 - 3 Q2 - 1 Q3 losses
G. MASON NET 85 - 1 Q2 - 3 Q3 losses
Moral of the story - Can't lose to a cupcake. The Mountain West teams play the same # of Cupcakes as the A10 does (maybe even more) - but they ain't losing them ...
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Post by rf1 on Jan 20, 2024 10:06:04 GMT -5
The disparity of the MWC vs A-10 NET for top teams is why the challenge series never happened. The MWC jumped ahead of the A-10 and now has too much to lose playing such games. Per my understanding the A-10 wanted to challenge to go on after Covid but there was no longer interest from the MWC.
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Post by zorro (res) on Jan 20, 2024 12:38:52 GMT -5
Good INFO Bigcat - Lack of Q1 wins are definitely a key factor driving the A10's poor NET Rankings, but it's the Q3 & Q4 losses that are just as devastating ... Mountain West TOP five Teams SD State NET 20 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses Colorado St. NET 23 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses Utah St. NET 25 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses New Mexico NET 27 - NO Q3-Q4 losses Nevada NET 45 - NO Q3-Q4 losses A10 TOP five Teams DAYTON NET 19 - NO Q2-Q3-Q4 losses ST. BONA NET 75 - 1 Q2 - 2 Q4 losses ST. JOES NET 80 - 3 Q3 - 1 Q4 losses RICHMOND NET 82 - 3 Q2 - 1 Q3 losses G. MASON NET 85 - 1 Q2 - 3 Q3 losses Moral of the story - Can't lose to a cupcake. The Mountain West teams play the same # of Cupcakes as the A10 does (maybe even more) - but they ain't losing them ... You guys are all over-complicating the NET ratings. It's an efficiency measure, pure and simple. There are two ways to raise your NET; increase your points per possession or decrease the points per possession allowed. In practice, that translates into beating your opponent by more than "predicted" or losing to your opponent by less than predicted (or winning the game outright). Strength of opponent does come into play in the calculations but all the Quadrant stuff is absolutely meaningless with respect to the calculation of NET. Q1 wins or Q4 losses only come into play when the Selection Committee sits down in March. It's a form of double-counting that allows them, in their infinite wisdom, to include or exclude teams as they see fit regardless of the NET rankings of the various teams. |
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Post by BONA82.5 on Jan 21, 2024 8:08:41 GMT -5
"Q1 wins or Q4 losses only come into play when the Selection Committee sits down in March."
That's EXACTLY my point.
MWC Teams manage to win the Q3/Q4 games while A10 Teams struggle.
Result - They get 4 teams in / we get 1 (2 if we are lucky).
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Post by BONA82.5 on Jan 21, 2024 8:17:55 GMT -5
A10 Teams (Updated 1/21/2024)
15 Dayton Atlantic 10 15-2
73 Richmond Atlantic 10 13-5
79 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 11-6
82 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 12-6
83 George Mason Atlantic 10 13-5
86 UMASS Atlantic 10 12-6
92 VCU Atlantic 10 11-7
101 Duquesne Atlantic 10 8-8
120 Loyola Atlantic 10 12-6
131 Davidson Atlantic 10 9-7
143 George Washington Atlantic 10 13-4
192 Fordham Atlantic 10 8-10
199 Rhode Island Atlantic 10 8-9
SAD ...
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Post by ceharv on Jan 21, 2024 11:23:40 GMT -5
IMO as much as anything, it’s a matter of getting the opportunities to play better teams, and the A10 has been a little too successful in that regard. A few years ago, we get the chance to finally play Syracuse in the dome. We go and beat them up there. Have we been invited back? Hell no we haven’t. Without recalling the specifics, I remember Dayton, VCU and SLU pulling off some nice power conference (or high mid-major) wins in the past few years, plus the occasional St. Joes beating Villanova or something like that. The Big 5 connection will give SJU more games against ‘Nova, but I suspect a significant win over a P6 team just reinforces their already existing reluctance to play an A10 opponent anywhere. If the MWC has some similar success, they may find their Q1 and Q2 opportunities becoming more rare. Once their teams start having trouble scheduling quality opponents, they may start pressuring their league to re-consider the concept of an agreement with the A10, - maybe - but they clearly aren’t there yet.
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Post by BONA82.5 on Jan 21, 2024 13:35:53 GMT -5
A10 NCAA BIDS since 2012
2012 - 4
2013 - 5
2014 - 6
2015 - 3
2016 - 3
2017 - 3
2018 - 3
2019 - 2
2020 - COVID
2021 - 2
2022 - 2
2023 - 1
Mountain West has 6 Teams in the TOP 75 in NET Rankings while the A10 has 2 (barely). Just playing Conference Home and Away games will insure them of at least 6 Q1 games. We are lucky to get 3 Q1s in A10 play. Losses to Q3 & Q4s crushes A10 NET. For starters - A10 TOP 5 teams have got to devour their cupcakes.
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Post by ewenke13 on Jan 23, 2024 23:37:59 GMT -5
Time to file this thread under “irrelevant” for St. Bonaventure
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Post by BONA82.5 on Jan 28, 2024 9:14:50 GMT -5
A10 Teams (Updated 1/28/2024) TOP 10 ONLY 16 Dayton Atlantic 10 16-3 69 Richmond Atlantic 10 15-5 72 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 12-7 82 George Mason Atlantic 10 14-5 87 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 13-7 88 VCU Atlantic 10 13-7 89 UMASS Atlantic 10 13-7 96 Duquesne Atlantic 10 10-8 119 Loyola Atlantic 10 12-7 123 Davidson Atlantic 10 10-8 Richmond in the mix "At Large" (  ) |
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Post by coach on Jan 29, 2024 1:57:42 GMT -5
A10 Teams (Updated 1/28/2024) TOP 10 ONLY 16 Dayton Atlantic 10 16-3 69 Richmond Atlantic 10 15-5 72 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 12-7 82 George Mason Atlantic 10 14-5 87 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 13-7 88 VCU Atlantic 10 13-7 89 UMASS Atlantic 10 13-7 96 Duquesne Atlantic 10 10-8 119 Loyola Atlantic 10 12-7 123 Davidson Atlantic 10 10-8 Richmond in the mix "At Large" ( ) The key to the Atlantic 10 these days is to finish top 4 in conference. Get the bye for A-10 tourney and win the championship. Not sure why you are so obsessed with the MOUNT west conference. MOUNT WEST: Dan Butterly: Every conference is working to guide their basketball programs towards better nonconference scheduling, obviously, you’re trying to get more at-large consideration for the NCAA Tournament. So you’re trying to find that right mix of recommendations, analytics, and data to provide your coaches the means to go out there and get the right mix of games. Nonconference scheduling is getting more difficult, top programs aren’t willing to go on the road and play home-and-home series like they used to. They’re really keeping it local, as much as they can. Budgets, for travel, to buy games, it’s getting much more expensive to run college athletic departments. Coaches are worried about job security and many other factors when they look at scheduling. We’re always looking for quality nonconference games against constant top 10 multi-bid conferences. A peer conference is what you look for in a challenge series, and that’s what we continue to do. Keeping it local has helped the mount west teams attract a better OUf of conference schedule. St Bonaventure really doesn't have that option. |
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Post by Sipowicz on Jan 29, 2024 9:14:23 GMT -5
Surprised to see VCU drop one spot in the NET after a road win.
Big game tomorrow night, need to bring the same energy that was at the St. Joe’s game.
GO BONNIES!
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Post by Sipowicz on Jan 31, 2024 9:50:19 GMT -5
BONNIES move up 3 just ahead of Richmond.
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Post by atlbonnie87 on Jan 31, 2024 11:01:54 GMT -5
You hate playing the what-if game, but remove the Canisus home L, and our NET 69 would have to jump by a good 5-10 spots, at least, you’d think.
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